Tuesday Morning: The Final Forecast

Good morning everybody, the storm is locked in and now its time to put out my final forecast. I basically took my original map from Sunday morning and made a few tweaks based on updated model guidance. Here it is..

Accumulations by major cities:

New York City:2-3"
Philadelphia: 4-5"
Boston: 4"
Baltimore/Washington: 3"
Morristown NJ: 7"
Long Valley NJ: (Northwestern NJ) 10"
Worcester Ma: 12+


Timing: Rain breaks out in most areas tomorrow morning. By the time we get to late morning there should be a rapid changeover from north to south to snow in many areas in the dark and light blue regions. Near NYC and the coast rain holds for longer. I want to note that elevation will play a huge factor in snow totals, below 400ft expect lighter end of my ranges. Travel will be at its worst during Wednesday afternoon into the evening especially North and West of Interstate 95 where this storm should be nearing its peak intensity. By the time we get to late Wednesday night the storm tapers off in most areas except for New England. By daybreak Thanksgiving we should be under calm and cool conditions.

This is a major early season winter storm that is bound to throw a few surprises to the upside and downside with intensity and amounts.I expect very heavy snow banding to occur which will cause brutal travel conditions at times and poor visibility. This is not a long duration storm but at its peak intensity will really pack a hard punch so be prepared.

Here is an example of the simulated storm getting close to peak intensity valid 1pm tomorrow

Keep checking in for updates, much more to come over the next 24 hours including an update tonight at 6pm!