Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Will It Snow?

That is the million dollar question right now and as always it is very difficult to answer on a micro level. On a macro level anytime you see a model projecting snow cover to look like this by next week, you know at least some of these areas will experience the white stuff..

Now the problem is if you read this map verbatim then you get into a lot of trouble. All this tells me is that we have a lot of cold air and moisture on the playing field which gives us the chance at storms to develop. Given the fact that we have to deal with the polar vortex meandering around south central Canada for most of this peroid its the cold air that actually in the end can suppress some of these snowfall opportunities. I will explain this below.

Before I focus on the main peroid which is early next week, lets not forget about the chance to see the first snowflakes of the season for many areas Thursday night into Friday. At this time it looks like at least flurrys are likely but weather we see any light accumulations remains to be seen. The european model is the most aggressive giving our area up to an inch of snow..

Very hard to determine if this will be realized as the other models are more suppressed with this light snow threat. The reason I am showing it is because I still do believe this can happen and the threat is alive. I will keep you guys updated on this.

Lets turn our focus back to the main period which is early next week. Most of the snow you see on that first map is based on the assumption that our area sees a larger storm at that time. But what factors do we have on our side, and what factors do we have against us for a storm.

The first factor is the cold air. Expect the colder temps to arrive by the end of the week after mild conditions this week (little slower to arrive that previous forecasts).. Once the cold air is in place we then have moisture that will try to run into it due to a split flow in the jet stream developing..

Now my concern is that the cold air presses a little too hard and suppresses the big storm threat out to sea next week. The map below shows a few factors..

First the positives. We have a area of high pressure over Greenland (negative NAO), a ridge out west and something called a 50/50 low that looks like it wants to develop. All those factors are supportive of a storm developing as they steer the jet stream in a favorable direction- especially when we have that split flow shooting moisture into the country. However, you can see part of the polar vortex sitting over central Canada. This is a double edged sword. It supplys the area will the cold air needed to create a boundry between the moisture to the south and the cold air to the north (baroclinic zone) but if too strong it can act like a foot and squash any developing waves along that baroclinic zone out to sea. Thus, making a forecast 7 days out is extremely hard.Right now the models says the wave of low pressure develops in a favorable area for the mid Atlantic to see snow next week..

With so many moving parts I would be guessing to put out a forecast at this time. It is something that I am going to have to keep breaking down over the next few days.

I will take a stance on the Friday situation and say I think we see our first flakes and that the European model has the right idea. 

Stay tuned and enjoy the last of the milder weather the first half of this week!