WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE

The 2023 Winter Outlook

Monday, December 2, 2019

6pm Update: It Was Boom or Bust Today

Good evening and thanks for all the follows today. Makes this hobby much more fun when there is a following behind me. So overall the forecast worked out really well in some areas and not so good in other (mainly western NJ near I-78). I am hearing reports of at least a foot of snow in areas of Sussex county and we have about 5 inches here in Morristown, NJ. Tomorrow morning we will see the final totals and compare to the forecast. 

To be honest, this was hardest storm I ever had to predict (really) due to the fact all the snowfall for our area depended on a very small scale but intense band of snow that was projected to develop. Our models just are not good enough yet to nail down exact placement. So due to this, I had to try to use experience and historical analogs. 

Tomorrow we will see how the entire forecast did when the totals are tallied up. I would say right now I am tracking to get a C on this. There is no such thing as an A for effort. 

So as of 6 pm we have snow in many areas still...


These smaller bands will rotate down into the forecast area through at least 11pm. Some areas can pick up another 1-3 inches from these. Currently the most impressive banding is over Sussex NJ and near New Brunswick. 

Short term models show the storm over the next 5 hours moving those bands through. Notice by tomorrow morning eastern New England is getting hit with impressive snowfall. Another 3-6 will pile up there...



The storm will speed up once our upper low moves just offshore allowing surface low to jump towards Maine in a few hours. Currently it is almost there...


Until then periods of snow will still be in the region.


Stay tuned guys, hope you all got some good info over the past few days.

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