Wednesday Pattern Update: Seasonable Overall

Good morning. I thought I would take a quick second to discuss my thoughts on Novembers weather pattern.

Colder conditions currently will lead to some milder air this weekend as a ridge of high pressure forms over the east...

This is no blow torch however as waves of energy should attack this ridge next week. In fact, the Mountains of New England can see their first accumulating snow in about a week as a disturbance moves through and knocks down that ridge...

As we enter the 10 day period, there is some evidence we see more sustained cold over the east although the signals are conflicted....

The key would be to get a trough to deepen off the west coast of the US. That would allow colder air to pool in the eastern 1/3.

The consensus of most is to say November simply will just look like this...

Not so fast however. Yes this does have a la nina look but not much would have to change for the east to see cooler air 2nd half of this month. The key is that strong ridge over Alaska which seeds very cold air into the country. If the model is wrong with the placement of that trough on the west coast and it is a little more west, then the east has a trough in which that very cold air can flow into.

Just some thoughts for now. Again no blow torch this November its just a matter of if we see cooler than normal second half. I assign a 50% chance.