Saturday Morning Storm Update

Good Morning. Our big rain storm is on track and will pack quite the punch tomorrow. Recent model guidance has actually moved towards the more aggressive European solution which develops a strong low pressure system and moves it right up the coast tomorrow afternoon/night.

Showers break out late tonight...

By later Sunday morning more consistent periods of rain move in as the front hovers over our area...

By Sunday afternoon into the night a strong low pressure system develops along this front....

This is where very heavy rain and high winds can be expected. For inland areas gusts over 35mph are likely. For areas at the coast especially Long Island into the shores of southern New England we can see a much higher wind speeds and gusts.

The European model is really aggressive with its wind gust forecast Sunday night...

This is very likely overdone. However, I still expect very high wind gusts at the coast just not 75 mph.  I like gusts of 50+ are more likely for the south facing shorelines with gusts of 35+ at times inland. 

When it is all said and done most areas see 2-4" of rain. 

In its wake the cold arctic air arrives making way for a very chilly Halloween.