Good morning. It could not be much warmer than we have seen for early January. Extremely unusual pattern that will eventually break this weekend. Some flakes can fly up in New England (light) this weekend then all eyes are on a storm threat for around Friday-Saturday of next week.
Despite the fact it has been so warm, remember it still is winter. The atmosphere has a way of balancing itself out. There is a pretty strong signal on models for possible storm development a week out so lets take a look...
Very strong agreement that cold air finally builds back in from Canada this weekend into the middle of next week seen by grey....
I'll use the next image from the other day because I drew on it, but it really hasn't changed since. In the upper atmosphere the jet stream configuration by the time we get to end of next week looks very compelling for storm development...
At the surface most models show a spread of storm locations for next Friday and Saturday...
This shows different possible locations of the storm center. Now in my experience most bigger storm we have had stay south initially in the long range, then trend back north within a few days of the event. At this long lead time this looks to be in a similar spot.
I will be watching this into the weekend. If I start to see favorable trends then we would have a legitimate winter weather threat to track for the east coast. Just know for now the potential is on the table.
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