Wednesday: Updated Forecast for Thurs-Fri Storm System

Good morning. A major storm will impact the area from Thursday morning until Friday evening. Heavy snow will fall across the interior with mixed precipitation then plain rain as you head towards the coasts. Below is a summary and my updated forecast map.

I will have an 8pm update out tonight with final details. Be sure to check in. 

Summary:

• A big storm system approaches the area Thursday morning.

• Initially it will be cold enough in areas NW of I-95 to cause frozen precipitation by late Thursday morning early Thursday afternoon
• Do not be surprised to see a thump of snow the more NW from 95 you go Thursday early afternoon which can cause a few inches to pile up quick before a changeover
• This is most difficult part of forecast but I am a little more bullish than most on this occurring. 
• The dark pink zone is this risk

• This precipitation will eventually change to ice then plain rain for most areas

• Areas like NW NJ and Western CT can see a few inches of snow pile up before the changeover making the roads not in ideal shape

• The storm will end by Friday evening 

Here is my updated forecast map:

I tried to hone in as much as I could for impacts. The light pink and green zones I do not expect major impacts from this. Just could be a icy start but will change to rain. For the dark pink this storm can start quite wintery in nature with a burst of heavy snow and ice. A few inches can pile up quickly by Thursday afternoon before a changeover. For the interior this is an old fashioned major snow storm.

Looking at the models, there still is a spread with how much cold air can make it south initially.

The coldest model is the GFS which has the snow coming closer to the coast Thursday afternoon...

Warm air then tries to work in aloft causing the snow to change over. The GFS however is holding on to cold air closer to the coast. We need to keep an eye on this. I have seen situations like this be colder than modeled before and the GFS may be on to something...

Other models are more north with the snow for Thursday night...

The key is going to be how far east the low develops off the coast and how much cold air can dam or hang in over our area in the meantime...

Models will still make adjustments to this today. 

Stay tuned for 8pm Update.