Thursday: Final Forecast for Today's Storm

Good morning. Below is my final forecast for the storm that will impact the region this afternoon into Friday. For most not to the NW in elevated locations this is rain. However, if you are in the pink zone in, expect impacts by later this afternoon (start time ~1-3pm). I will share an update later this afternoon as this gets underway. 

Here is updated forecast...

You can see how NW NJ into western CT etc is in pink. This is where I expect an initial burst of snow and then some frozen precipitation later this afternoon into tonight. I think there are going to be more travel impacts in this pink zone that most expect. Elevation will play a major role (folks above 800ft). 

Here is a play by play: I am using the GFS model because I think it shows the evolution the best. 

In terms of timing, most models start the precipitation by early this afternoon say between 12 to 2pm...

By mid afternoon and especially this evening, I expect impacts to start mounting on the roads in the pink zone on my map. Models are still spread on how much cold air holds on and I am in the camp frozen precipitation falls longer than expected.

By 7pm warm air will try to change snow and ice to rain but this is the critical period....

A small 15 mile adjustment will have big implications but as you can see this model shows my concern that snow/frozen precip continues into NW NJ.

Eventually warm air does win out and things should change to plain rain for the whole pink zone, but that may not be till late tonight into Friday morning...

As you can see a snowstorm continues into the far interior. The storm then ends by Friday early afternoon.