Good morning. What has seemed like a tame weather pattern in recent days will made a pretty big flip by the time we get from the Dec 10th to 20th time period. I expect winter to arrive pretty abruptly with a step down to cold and yes possibly snowy conditions. There are many factors in the atmosphere evolving right now to support this that I have been watching evolve carefully over the last two weeks. Today I will discuss some of these.
Starting off, my going forecast idea is that by Dec 10th the northeast enters a a wintery period of weather. This means colder than normal conditions with the chance of a snow event between the 10th and 20th timeframe. Prior to this occurring, things should stay seasonable with the chance of a few light rain events. Do not be fooled however, there are things evolving right now that we have not seen in recent Decembers.
Starting off, going way up into the atmosphere at the stratosphere, the polar vortex has been weakened in recent weeks. What does this mean? Normally when you have a tight wound up PV, it locks all the cold air up in the pole and its mild across our area. When the PV becomes stressed and is not able to strengthen, you start to see some of that cold air pour south.
The image below shows the current PV. Notice how it is off its center axis and pushed south closer to our side of the globe in blue...
As we move further down in the atmosphere, we are seeing other factors emerge that are also putting stress on this vortex while setting up a pattern for stormy weather by week 2 of December...
Looking at the image above sums up what is projected to occur. Red areas are high pressure and warm air, blue are lower pressures and colder air. What is happening over Greenland is quite signifigant. That big red blob is called a blocking pattern. This means it causes the jet stream to buckle over our area allowing storm energy to consolidate near the east coast. We have not seen a projected pattern like this since December 2009. If this verifies, it will mean the chances for winter winter significantly increase by week 2 of Dec.
In my opinion what is occurring is all connected to the stratosphere in the first image. There are many theories as to why we may continue to see a weakened stratosphere/Polar Vortex this winter, one of them being the Tonga underwater volcano earlier this year. It injected an unprecedented amount of water vapor into the atmosphere which one can speculate has had an impact on the stratosphere.
In any event, when I put together my Winter Forecast in Oct I saw evidence this could happen in December. Now its a waiting game. Remember these are still projections, but do not be surprised if there is snow in your back yard by mid Dec.
More to come. I post daily update on my twitter handle @weatherwilly.
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