Good morning. Winter is knocking on our door and a big pattern change is on the horizon. This is something I have been talking about on twitter the last two weeks and now all indications are it will occur. What does this mean? It means compared to the warm temps we have seen in recent days, temps will step down into the 40's for high and 30s for lows over the next few weeks. This process starts by end of next weekend in the wake of a big tropical rainmaker that will impact the area on Friday night.
Lets take a look...
Seasonable to mild conditions this week give way to a tropical storm/hurricane that will hit eastern Florida and move up the coast as a sub tropical system on Friday night...
This tropical system is interacting with a cold front and will produce heavy rains over the area through Saturday morning...
In the wake of this a big cold front arrives Saturday night with temps dropping into the 30s by Sunday morning...
This is the arrival of the pattern change I have been discussing. What is happening is the configuration of the jet stream is changing. This is due to a variety of factors which include, the stratosphere, convection in the tropics, ocean temperate patterns etc. The image below shows why colder air will come into our region the 2nd half of November...
The question then becomes will it stick around for December? My winter forecast indicates it does but of course we will have to monitor. If we see a flip to warm by 1st week of December that is a red flag for my winter forecast.
In terms of snowfall, I would expect flakes to start flying in interior New England by next week with the chance of some accumulating snowfall by end of next week especially in ski areas. For areas closer to the coast, we can not rule out seeing your first flakes flying in the air by the end of next week, but overall I do not expect any snow yet. It is still early.
So enjoy those last few days of warmer temps middle of this week. Winter is knocking.
More to come.
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