Tuesday Weather Update: Pattern Change Underway, Snow Chances Will Increase

Good morning. At last we will have seasonable temperatures return this week with a more noticeable change by next week. I discussed last week how by the 2nd week of February possibly into early March would feature a pattern that is colder than normal and possibly snowy for the eastern 1/3 of the country. Everything in that regard appears to be on track and today I will hone in on some details including snow chances. In particular I am focused on early next week for a potential impact storm. 


As we move through this week, the evolution of our weather pattern continues to change as a ridge of high pressure starts to build over Alaska. This blocks mild pacific air from entering the country and allows cold air from the north to funnel south...

The pattern you see above should almost lock in for most of this month with shots of brutally cold air impacting the central plains and bleeding towards the east coast at times. This is pretty impressive guys and it all is seeded in those factors I discussed last week (stratosphere,MJO, seasonal responses).

Our first shot at some snow may come Friday as a coastal wave can produce some light to maybe moderate snow...

I am not sold on anything too impactful here but it is worth mentioning as this could end up putting down a few inches in spots.

My bigger focus is early next week. There are a few factors I like to see on the maps that can produce a bigger storm.

For one cold air will be in place by the end of the weekend...

We then have an upper air pattern that will feature evidence of blocking high pressure over Greenland and a potential amplifying ridge of high pressure out west...

Now this is something to really watch in my opinion for Monday or Tuesday next week. I love seeing that block near Greenland as it will help slow the flow down and help consolidate energy.

At this time models are flirting with showing a storm developing at the surface...

We will see if things start to trend more impressive. I will not be surprised to see that happen.

In any event, things will stay active past early next week as that cold air locks in. If we do not see snow on the ground by the middle of February I will be surprised. 

Stay tuned, I will be updating frequently.