Thursday Weather Note

Good morning. As we await the pattern change I discussed on Monday, I thought I would hone in on the first potential arctic outbreak. 

Models are indicating we could see our first real shot around the  Superbowl...

 I am very confident bitterly cold air enters this pattern the question I have is where does it center?  In the image above you can see the whole eastern 1/3 is in the freezer Superbowl Sunday. Other models however have the cold centered more west..

Given what we have seen this winter I am favoring the eastern bleed of the arctic air. We will see it hit the plains first then bleed into the east coast. 

In any event, I think once this pattern arrives it holds for most of February. Naturally we will see some snow with air masses like this, but for big storms I would like to see a little more high pressure over Greenland (-NAO)

On Monday there is an outside chance New England sees snow from an inverted trough (very hard to predict these things)...

The threat of that bigger storm out to sea looks to stay tame at this time. I believe it does stay out to sea so the only chance at snow will be from residual effects of the offshore trough as seen above. Regardless, it will be worth monitoring for changes.

Until then, things warm up for the weekend as a warm front moves into the region.

Thats all for now.