Summary:
- High impact winter storm to move into the region late tonight through tomorrow
- Snow starts before dawn south and after dawn to the north (New England)
- Snow ends in the afternoon to the south and nighttime in New England
- Expect gusty winds and blowing snow that will pile up quick in hardest hit areas
- Expect an all out blizzard in eastern New England
- There will be a sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts around the I-95 corridor
- This will come down to the wire and shifts west or east are still possible today
- I still believe the snow shield gets a little more west than what most are saying due to the dynamics of the storm
- Regardless anyone in the 3-6" zone will come right down to the wire on this!
*There will be a prime time update tonight at 8:30 discussing the final forecast trends. Be sure to check in to see if there are any changes.*
Here is my updated forecast: (click all images to make bigger)
Right now public forecasts are fairly conservative for our area......
Could they be correct? Of course, but I am going against the grain a little here expecting this precip gets a little more west than what the consensus says.
Currently our storm is developing off the SE coast...
This will explosively deepen as we approach tomorrow and reach very impressive pressure levels as it moves up the east coast. This means high winds for the coast and high wind gusts inland. A true blizzard will unfold in eastern New England tomorrow.
I have seen nothing in the last 12 hours that suggests a shift east in this storm. The issue is many models have such a sharp cutoff in precip as seen below...
I agree that there will be a sharp cutoff but given snow ratios it will not take much liquid to pile up a few inches from this.
In addition the trends to me do not say east...
Animation above shows last 4 runs of the GFS ensemble. Watch the green and yellow shades out in the Atlantic. Notice how they move west not east. This represents a sharper trough and a storm that still can form more west compared to surface projections. My map above is based on things like this.
In terms of model support here is what we are seeing right now...
GFS has less snow than my forecast and yes this can happen but its not my call right now...
The NAM model is well overdone but it shows the other extreme...
The regional canadian model I think looks the best right now and splits the difference...
Here is the total storm animation from the regional Canadian. I am showing it because it best represents what I think happens. Notice how deep the pressure level gets!
Be sure to tune into my prime time update tonight at 8:30. We will have the final model trends to digest and I think we will know if my forecast will verify.
Wow, this morning the NAM is showing more than a foot as far west as Boonton and Mo'Town (Willy country!), while the Canadian has backed down to the 2 inch range over the Parkway. Quite a change from yesterday's runs! Euro and GFS look pretty much stable, GEFS ensemble a little heavier. Lots of dynamics in play here, obviously! Pretty soon the HRRR kicks in. For me, snow is not much fun, given the urbanized environment that I need to navigate. However, watching it come in sure is! Jim G
ReplyDeleteTime to nowcast...this thing is a monster and it will all come down to where the bands set up tonight and tomorrow. Good luck with that urban navigation tomorrow, it will not be easy! Good thing this is a quick hitter and isn't stalling.
DeleteThanks as always WW! FYI - I believe your map has a typo. Snow will end Thursday not Friday.
ReplyDeleteThanks for catching that Larry, I just fixed it
DeleteEnjoy your Blog, been following the past year!
ReplyDeleteWhat I find interesting is the lack of hype by the media. No posted warnings for north of the Driscoll bridge. Usually the media doesn't miss a chance to play up the storms regardless of the percentages. They're being unusually bearish about snow totals on this one.
Well they are all on board now. I am still curious as you advised with such a slight shift of 25-50 miles why the media wasn't hyping this earlier. They usually never miss a shot of creating the bread n milk, generator, shovel, salt hysteria.
DeleteMaybe they should have checked your blog this morning :)
I am not sure why. The only reason I can think is the major models like the euro and gfs didnt' show the shift and they didn't want to trust the higher resolution short term models. As you just mentioned, now they are playing catch up.
DeleteGlad you enjoy the blog!