Good morning. Lets wait for this rainstorm to fully exit the area today then I will focus on what will be the home stretch of winter 1st two weeks of March. It is no secret this winter has been a one hit wonder for areas of Mid-Atlantic and one of the worst for New England (no snow). With that being said, the atmosphere is still projected to be ripe through March 15th for things to develops along the east. Could this mean more rain? Sure, but it also could go the other way as well. If we end up pulling off one more decent storm then at least the snowfall numbers for the Mid-Atlantic would come in decent. There is no saving New England and there is no saving my 1-2 degree departure from normal temperature projections.
I had a good run with the last two winters forecasts I put out (2014 and 2015). You can find old copies of those on tabs of this blog. This year I did swing and miss for the most part. Well, maybe I hit a foul ball because we got a top 4 storm in last 100 years!!! Regardless, if we do pull off one more big one it wouldn't be a total failure of a forecast. In any event, 2 out of 3 isn't too bad.
I would say that since I will be traveling to Utah to ski next week the chances of a big storm are very high! LOL seriously though it will be active that week.
Stay tuned for more details tomorrow on home stretch.
Your prediction of snowfall totals for the winter were pretty close, at least for the NYC metro area. New York City currently has slightly above average snowfall, a few more inches and it'll be the about the amount you predicted. This year seems analogous to the 82-83 El Nino winter, which also had one major snowfall event. The other strong El Nino winter of 97-98 had barely any snowfall for the NYC area.
ReplyDeleteThank you - You are my go to guy in the NJ/NY area :)
ReplyDeleteN.J. HAD WELL BELOW YOUR FORCASTS FOR SNOW. BOO
ReplyDeleteWHAT IS 2-24-16@ 12:27PM SMOKING......
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