Monday Weather Summary: Heat Wave Returns

Good morning. Sorry for the lack of posting, I have been extremely busy. Jumping right into the weather, we are now going to be under another heat wave through Thursday. It was a big tease with the fall like weather last few days and this week will remind us that it is still summer.

A large upper level ridge of high pressure will sit over our area through the next few days bringing with it warm moist air from the southwest...

Expect temps in the low to mid 90s, with heat indexes close to 100 in some spots (what it feels like) through at least Wednesday.

Relief then comes Thursday night as a cold front moves in with showers and storms...

In the wake of this, drier pleasant air enters the region and it looks to be a great weekend with temperatures in the low 80s with a comfortable feel in the air.


We then may see another return to the heat for early September before a potential pattern change by mid September into cooler than normal fall like weather. The jury is still out on this. 

Remember my Winter Outlook 2019 will be out in October as well. 

Monday Weather Summary: More Wet and Unsettled Weather, Winter Tease

Good morning. Rainfall, thats been the story of this month so far as multiple storm systems have dropped heavy rain over the region. In my backyard, I have measured over 8" just this month alone. Pretty impressive and destructive for some as the rain has caused flooding.

Unfortunately, this week a stalled frontal boundary means more rounds of rain for the area.  Starting today, we will see some showers move in...

By tomorrow, it will not be as widespread, but more scattered showers can be expected..

We then should see a break Wed and Thurs before a more organized system arrives for Friday and Saturday. Indications are a low pressure system can develop  along the frontal system...

This would mean showers Friday and the chance at more consistent rain Saturday morning. We will have to wait and see what happens here. Regardless, the pattern of wet weather will continue.

Sunday looks to be a decent day overall. 

Winter Outlook Teaser:

We are  two months out from my winter outlook 2019, but of course I have begun to research the topic.

I always take long range models with a grain of salt for seasonal forecasting. Many times they are wrong. Regardless, just for fun here is the CANSIPS model for winter. I show this because it looks like the European Seasonal model which I do not have access too...

You can see a pattern of high pressure over the top with a pocket of storminess underneath in the east (blue). This would be quite the pattern for the Mid Atlantic into New England as a lot of energy would get caught up over the east and there would be cold air available. 

Can this occur? Stay tuned.

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summery: Typical Summer Week

 Good morning. As we progress into the heart of the week, humidity will return along with the chance of some showers and storms to hit the region. A frontal boundary is currently settled just south of our area and this boundary will meander all week Overall it will feel like a typical summer week.

Today will feature the slight chance of unsettled weather as a warm front moves towards our area from off the coast.

This will be more noticeable Wednesday as humidity increases and showers overspread the area...

This pattern then continues into the weekend. There are no washouts on the horizon just the chance of showers everyday of the week mostly. The weekend will see these showers less frequent as the air mass should stabilize some.  Nothing I am too concerned about.

As far as temperatures are concerned, expect mid 80's all week.

In terms of the long range outlook, August should start on the warmer side but then moderate as we get to mid month. I do not see any heatwaves on the horizon for the northeast. This is a pretty tame pattern we are dealing with heat wise.

Believe it or not, we are almost at that time of year when we can start looking at Winter 2019! I already have a few idea but will wait to later in Aug to start discussing.

Weekend Update: Rainstorm on Tap

Good evening. I wanted to update blog due to a pending rainstorm that will hit the area Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. In its wake, expect unstable conditions for at least the first half of next week with multiple chances at showers. This is all due to an unsettled pattern involving tropical moisture being sent into the area over a period of days.

Starting with tomorrow rain will move in by mid afternoon as a coastal low develops. This is pretty interesting because this is usually something we would see in the fall not mid July...

By the evening, it is raining stead in many areas with gusty winds...

The storm clears in the early hours of Sunday morning...

We are then left with mostly cloudy skies Sunday with the chance of a few showers. This is a big wildcard day as models are a little variable with how much rain they show. There is a chance the day can be salvageable.


Moving on , more rain comes on Monday as waves of tropical moisture cause showers over the area...

The next image below shows the moisture in green...notice the flow off the Atlantic right into our region as seen by the green shades...

This will cause this pattern to persist for a few days, pretty remarkable.

Moving back to Saturday, the upper level pattern intrigues me as it looks like an impressive winter storm with an upper level low to the west  over Ohio valley and a surface low on the coast...

IF only this was January.....

The next image shows how our trough of low pressure (blue) is squeezed between two ridges of high pressure out in the Atlantic and to the west. This is what is allowing the onshore flow of tropical moisture and days of unsettled weather...

Thats all for now, more to come on Monday. 

Weekly Weather Update: Storms Tonight Break Humidity, Nice Weather to Follow

Good morning. We are currently under an intense humidity regime across the region. It is downright sticky and miserable out.  This high moisture content in the air will aid in producing very heavy downpours later this afternoon as a cold front finally crosses the area. Some of these storms also can be severe..

This will cross through by later tonight. In its wake we then will have a stretch of beautiful weather through Saturday as high pressure build in and humidity values drop as seen by dew points below...

Expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a very comfortable summer feel to the air.

Things can get unsettled again on Sunday as tropical moisture approaches from the south...

There will be potential for some more widespread rain but we need to see how this evolves over the next few days.

Looking at the long range, it now appears the rest of July into Aug will be on the cooler side of things. Long term models along with other climate signals I look at such as the MJO indicate a trough over the east in the long range...

It will still feel like summer, we just should not see any heatwaves in a pattern like this. To me thats good news!

Thats all for now. As we enter August I will start to comment on the winter season. It may still be early but we can still start to discuss factors!

Weekly Weather Update: Normal Summer Week

Good morning. Not anything too exciting to discuss for this week. We will see some warmer temperatures today (Tuesday) followed by a little bit of a cool down as we head towards the weekend. Offshore, a tropical system will be out in the Atlantic.

Highs today will be in the upper 80's to low 90s. A weak cold front then moves into the area tonight..

Expect a few scattered showers and storms but nothing too widespread.

Things then stay mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 80's through the weekend as high pressure maintains control of the region. There is a shot at another frontal passage later on Saturday that can bring a little unsettled weather but nothing too widespread expected at this time.

Out in the Atlantic, we have a tropical system that will stay out to sea. Nothing major here but it is worth noting..

Thats all for now, enjoy the week.

Tuesday 4th of July Outlook: More Brutal Heat, Awesome Weekend

Good morning. As we all sizzle in the brutal heat this week, the natural question is how much longer does this heat last?

Well, we got a few more days to go guys with relief finally coming this weekend as a strong cold front will approach.

Today (Tuesday) will be another very hot and humid day with temperatures in the mid to upper 90's and heat index over 100. A very weak cold front will move into the area this afternoon which will cause some storms to pop up...

I do not expect anything severe, just a few heavy downpours possible due to the high moisture in the air.

As we enter the 4th the heat does not break as this stubborn impressive upper level ridge of high pressure lingers over the area....

The temperatures should peak early this week but we are only talking a few degrees less for Wednesday and Thursday so still very hot (90s) and no many chances at any rain/storms.

The relief finally comes starting Friday as a stronger cold front will move in with showers and storms ahead of it Friday morning...

Temperatures will break and highs will be in the mid 80s which will be welcomed.

We then hit a gorgeous weekend as humidity crashes and an upper level trough sits near our area bringing with it cool summer weather...

Temperatures will be in the high 70's to mid 80's with low humidity. Just picture perfect for 4th of July weekend! Notice how our big ridge that caused the warm weather is pulled back to the west.


So there you go. If we can survive the next few days of heat, we will be rewarded with a perfect weekend.


Happy 4th!