Tuesday Morning: A Close Call This Weekend

Good morning everyone. As a follow up to last nights post, we do have some storm (winter) activity to track for this upcoming weekend. As it stands now, most of this misses our region to the south. Like anything else in model land however, its not about what the models show right now but where they might trend. I have been trying to figure this out over the last few days.

Here is what my thoughts are at this current time...

On Friday, we have a weak clipper system that should impact the area. I believe any area from central NJ north has the shot at light accumulating snow. This will be nothing serious but will put a winter feel in the air. The current GFS model looks ok on this, but I would adjust the snow area about 50 miles north from what you see below valid Friday morning...

This clipper brings with it very cold air for Saturday. Temps will struggle to get into the mid 30's.

In the wake of this clipper, we then need to focus on a potential bigger system for Sunday. As stands, models are trending south with this system with a miss for most northern areas..

This is due to high pressure being too strong which acts to squash it...

 The issue here is what is causing this high pressure to be so strong. The answer is what is going on in the upper atmosphere. We have a very strong vortex over E Canada (a great sign for a winter storm, but not when it is too strong)...

If this vortex circled in red was to end up more north than modeled then we would get a storm that is allowed to come further north as well. This would have big implications for our region. 

Historical analogs suggest this does stay south but not by much...

The next 36 hours are key. If we do not see any northern adjustments by Thursday morning then we can write this off. I do think this ends up staying south as projected. Let's see what happens. We will then have one more to track for early next week.

Stay tuned. 

Monday Night Weather Tease: Late Season Surprise?

Too early to tell but there is a disturbance in the force. Cold air gets ushered in on Thursday..

In its wake a clipper system then will target the mid Atlantic Friday..

We still need to work out details on where this actually tracks. I will focus on this more tomorrow.

In the wake of a clipper a more significant system is possible for Sunday...

Models have been trending south with this and the GFS model above is only one with a direct hit to the NJ/PA area. Other models have been south such as the Canadian..

This is due to high pressure that is too strong and acts to suppress the storm.

So what will it be? Too early to tell. I will have more insight on this tomorrow morning after I look at tonight's model runs. 

Stay tuned, things could get interesting. Nothing like action at the 11th hour of winter!

Monday morning: Back from vacation

Posting resumes tonight. There is a little winter left to talk about. I will be focusing on the 10th to 17th peroid. Yes there is chancs of snow. Stay tuned, big post tonight at 7pm.

Gone Out West Skiing

I am currently in the air in route to Snowbird, UT for a ski trip. I will have a few posts here and there this week as it permits. Chilly weather early this week makes way to another big warm up by middle to end of the week. Cold air this filters in this weekend and winter should return for a brief while.

I will have more details on this tomorrow. Thanks for checking in.

Thursday Weather Discussion: Beautiful Weather On Tap, March Madness?

Good morning everyone. We have beautiful spring weather on tap today with temperatures in the mid to high 60's and even 70's in some spots! These nice temperatures hold through Saturday where we then will have a cold front bring things more towards normal Saturday night...

So where do we go from there? As I mentioned earlier this week, I believe winter is over for the Mid-Atlantic but not New England. Of course just after I say that models are hinting at some March mayhem, but overall I think the idea stays intact.

Summary:

• Warm weather through the weekend with the chance at showers as a cold front passes through Saturday
• Brief return to chilly weather early next week before more warm air to follow.
• Pattern then potentially changes to more winter like for 2nd and 3rd week of March
• Details still need to be worked out
• Areas in New England and maybe parts of northern Mid-Atlantic could see on last gasp of winter with this pattern.
• When it is all said and done I think it will be more of a 10 day wave of winter weather among an overall spring pattern (exception New England).

Lets take a look..

Next week warms up again relative to averages after a short chilly spell from the cold front the weekend..

From there, models then all start to show a little bit of a change in the tide as we get towards the end of next week and into the 1st week of March...

You are looking at the European, American and Canadian models above centered on the end of next week. I want you to focus on two areas, the red on each over the west coast and the red over Greenland. This represents a pattern that can actually deliver cold to the central and eastern USA. Now, if the red over Greenland is not strong enough then the cold centers more in the central and the east continues its pattern of mild air. That can happen as well and would not surprise me. Regardless, the signals are strong for one last push of a winter pattern for the 1st half of March somewhere from the plains eastward.

The image below simplifies this using the GFS ensemble model centered on 2nd week of March....

Again, this is very long range. I am confident in a push of cold but am not sold yet on the idea that this makes it all the way to the east coast. The theme of this winter has been to center the energy more towards the central US and keep warmer air along the east. The high pressure over Greenland seen above is what would counter this.

Bottom Line: Winter may have one last gasp from the plains eastward in the 1st half of march. Details still need to be worked out and at this time I think we see some adjustments to center the cold a little more west than what is shown above.  

Monday Morning Pattern Update: Spring for Mid-Atlantic

Good morning everyone. Well, spring is certainly in the air. We discussed last week how this would occur and now we are seeing it in full swing along the eastern 1/3 of the country. Birds are chirping, flowers down near the Mason Dixon line are sprouting, and snow is melting. Out west, the mountain regions are seeing and will continue to see the action over the next 2 weeks. Expect multiple episodes of snow for those mountains. That is great for the ski areas.

So is this really it, is winter over? For the mid-Atlantic south I really think so. For New England, I wouldn't make that call yet. I can see March being a active month up there for the ski areas.  Overall it just was not in the cards this year for the Mid-Atlantic region. Most areas are well below normal for snowfall and well above for temps. Up in New England, northern areas have actually done very very well while areas near Boston have been around average. 

The warm pattern continues over the next 10 days...

You can see the trough of cold air/low pressure out west and the warm air in the east in the image above. This has been the theme of the winter and I see no reason why this will not continue into March as the models show. 

Looking at the tropical pacific, a pattern of tropical convection called the MJO also supports this as it may head into its phase 3 as we enter March. Think of the MJO as a cluster of thunderstorms that moves through different regions in the tropics. It influences the jet stream.

This is what phases 3 tends to produce..

Notice the trough hanging west and evidence of ridging of high pressure in the east. This is not far off from what the models shows.

So can this change? Maybe as we head into the 2nd-3rd week of March but I would not count on it. Sure we can get big mid March storms, but my gut tells me its just not that kind of year. Up in New England ski areas I can see a better shot at this. 

It will not be long before we are discussing severe weather season which could be active this year. 

Look guys, no one loves winter more than me. I hate to see a snap like this into early spring, but its just the reality staring us right in the face. I am not going to "search" for cold and deny reality. Mother Nature always have a few surprises up her sleeve so let me be pleasantly surprises. Until then, I will be polishing up my golf clubs for spring. 

Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion: The S Word is Becoming Relevant

Spring, thats right. It will not be long before spring takes it hold on the Mid-Atlantic. Now I am not like most people, if it was up to me I could have winter until May but that's not the way it works. With the exception of northern VT,NH and Maine it has been a pretty below average winter for snowfall. It just was not in the cards for us this year. Some years it wants to snow, others it doesn't. This year it was clear it wanted to snow out west and way up north. But hey, at least we got something. 

Winter is never officially over in my book until the 3nd week of March. However, when it comes to this year the window is shutting rapidly. We will have a big warm up next week followed by a wildcard, rabbit out of your hate type set up for a storm to develop late next week. This means it probably will not happen. Heading into early March one last gasp of winter is not off the table but it is too early to predict that at this time. Overall we are clearly in the 9th inning here.

A storm that could have been is missing us to the east and will hook back into Maine tonight with more snow...

Maine currently has a 50 inch snowpack in spots and this will add to it. It has been an epic week for that state. Areas in NH,VT and eastern Mass also will see snow from this. Expect several inches there as well. This was sooo close to being a big storm for everyone. 

Here are updated snowfall projections for this...

 

Moving onto late this weekend into next week, a surge of warmth...

Storm activity will pick up late next week but the models are trying to sort it out. You can see below it shows a lot of activity on the maps...

We clearly are not going to have two side by side storms like this. What will likely happen is one big storm that cuts inland with rain. The chances at snow are there but very slim. Everything would have to be timed perfectly.

That is all for now, more to come later this week.