Tuesday Morning: A Close Call This Weekend

Good morning everyone. As a follow up to last nights post, we do have some storm (winter) activity to track for this upcoming weekend. As it stands now, most of this misses our region to the south. Like anything else in model land however, its not about what the models show right now but where they might trend. I have been trying to figure this out over the last few days.

Here is what my thoughts are at this current time...

On Friday, we have a weak clipper system that should impact the area. I believe any area from central NJ north has the shot at light accumulating snow. This will be nothing serious but will put a winter feel in the air. The current GFS model looks ok on this, but I would adjust the snow area about 50 miles north from what you see below valid Friday morning...

This clipper brings with it very cold air for Saturday. Temps will struggle to get into the mid 30's.

In the wake of this clipper, we then need to focus on a potential bigger system for Sunday. As stands, models are trending south with this system with a miss for most northern areas..

This is due to high pressure being too strong which acts to squash it...

 The issue here is what is causing this high pressure to be so strong. The answer is what is going on in the upper atmosphere. We have a very strong vortex over E Canada (a great sign for a winter storm, but not when it is too strong)...

If this vortex circled in red was to end up more north than modeled then we would get a storm that is allowed to come further north as well. This would have big implications for our region. 

Historical analogs suggest this does stay south but not by much...

The next 36 hours are key. If we do not see any northern adjustments by Thursday morning then we can write this off. I do think this ends up staying south as projected. Let's see what happens. We will then have one more to track for early next week.

Stay tuned.