Wednesday Morning: The Calm Before the Storm

*Winter Storm to Affect Region Tonight*

It doesn't get much more calm before a storm than today. High temperatures will hit mid 50's to 60's in some spots with mostly cloudy skies.

Summary:

• Strong winter storm moves into area tonight
• Snow starts just after Midnight and picks up rapidly in intensity
• At times snow will fall 1-2 inches per hour
• At daybreak the storm will be at its peak
• Snow starts to taper off by mid-morning
• When it is said and done many areas see 6-12 inches with some local areas over a foot

You would never know we are all under a Winter Storm Warning...

I have made no changes to my forecast from last night...

The final forecast will be released tonight with any necessary tweaks, so stay tuned for that. At this time I like what I have.

Latest models are still indicating a 6 hour heavy burst of snow peaking around daybreak. You can see projected radar for 7 am tomorrow morning with heavy snow for most areas...

This will not be ideal for travel, especially north and west where surface temperatures will be colder.

More tonight around 7pm.

Tuesday Night: Updated Snowfall Forecast

Here is my updated snowfall forecast. I had to up totals from this morning and for good reason. This may be a quick hitter but it will pack quite the punch for areas off the coast. The video below breaks down my updated thoughts. Next update tomorrow, keep checking in. 

Tuesday Morning: Preliminary Snowfall Forecast for Thursday Morning

Stay tuned for tonight's important update. Data coming in so far today is impressive.

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Good morning everyone. Below is my initial estimate of snowfall for Thursday morning...

Here are the major takeaways:

• Details still not ironed out on track but the chances of an accumulating snow are increasing
• could be shifting this more north or south over next day
• Snow starts very early Thursday morning and ends early Thursday afternoon
• This is a quick hitter that can pack a punch
• Areas NW of I-95 see biggest impacts due to colder surface temps
• Roads should be manageable due to this
• *Remember it will be 60 degrees in many areas day before the event*
• Higher elevations see biggest impacts due to roads holding snow better
• This includes NW NJ, PA, and into Southern New England
• Overall this should be a moderate not major event

Snow starts early Thursday morning...

Latest models peak the storm around 8-10am Thursday...

I will emphasize again that this is a NW of I-95 special. Snow will fall to the SE of this corridor, but the road impacts will not be as bad and the accumulations will be mostly on the grass.

Stay tuned for a video around 8 pm tonight!

Monday Morning: Show Me Snow and I'll Believe It

Good morning everyone. After a little lull in posting, I am back in action this week. It has been one of those winters so far. Limited snow for the Mid-Atlantic and New England region and plenty of rain as we start to look back on this winter season. We are now in the final stretch of Winter which in my book ends around the 2nd week of March. Will we see snow again? Im sure we see flakes fly again but I am not counting on much to be honest.

Some years it wants to snow some years it doesn't and it seems like this year is one of those years. For example, the rain storm that we will see tomorrow originally looked like it could be snow. As you see below, that clearly will not be the case..

Now there is a shot we do see a snow event Thursday morning as a wave of low pressure develops along an approaching polar front....

Not all models agree on this but at this time I say this is a 50/50 shot at a moderate snowfall for many areas. If all the cards align properly, we would be looking at maybe 3-5 inches. I will make more of a stance on this tomorrow after I look at today's data..

In the wake of what ever happens on Thursday, we then go into a back and forth type pattern. There will be more cold shots, but there also will be some mild days as well. We can get a big storm in the pattern over the next 2-3 weeks, I am just telling you guys that its the type of winter were I would't count on it. Lets just see if we are pleasantly surprised. 

I will say the 2-3 week pattern on paper really doesn't look bad.....

Looking above we got nice trough of low pressure south of the Aleutian Islands, ridge of high pressure over the West Coast, Trough of low pressure in the east and a nice area of high pressure over Greenland. It def can deliver guys so do not be fooled, it just hasn't this year so far. It will be interesting to see if the models back off on this as we get closer to the target period.

So lets see how this plays out, one step at a time. Stay tuned for updates on Thursday.

Normal Posting Resumes Monday

Thanks for all the nice comments, it's been a long week. Lost my grandfather who was a true American hero. He served in the 3rd Marine Division in WWII and was in the Battle of Iwo Jima. He witnessed the flag raising on Mt. Suribachi and told me many times the scene was the greatest display of patriotism he's ever seen. Tom Ciccone was part of a special generation. They just don't make men like him anymore.

I also was sick and had to move into a new house to top it off. So I think that's a good recipie for no posting

On Monday we will revisit the rest of winter and I will discuss my thoughts.

Been Sick

Will post when I can.

Post Later Tonight

Will give updates on the long range as a follow up to my thoughts on Monday.