130 update: Storm is Suprising Everyone Near Phili

All Amounts have been adjusted upwards by National Weather Service

Play by Play of Tomorrow's Winter Weather

10am Update: I like what I have below, major operational models hold the accumulation ideas in line. The short term high resolution models however are a little more optimistic on snow amounts or areas north and west. These same models did bust however on Friday night so it will be interesting to see what happens. I will update throughout the day on this page so check in. 

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Below is video with my final thoughts on tomorrow. I took down some of the snow and ice amounts from yesterday. Details in video. Timing is from tomorrow early afternoon starting in the southern zones ending Monday in the northern zones on map.

First Stab at Winter Weather Effecting Our Region Sunday Night

QUICK 430PM UPDATE: Everything looks on track. Flakes should fly tonight mostly accumulating in northwest Jersey. Will keep and eye on Sunday and cut video tomorrow.  Also note totals on map below are for both events combined.

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Good morning. This weekend I will cut the usual play by play video of how the event will unfold, but for now here are my preliminary thoughts on what to expect with the wintery precipitation that will effect our area possibly tonight then again on Sunday night. For most areas the main concern will be icy roads before the inevitable changeover to rain late Sunday night. Our far northwest counties into PA will receive the most snow and ice before it ends as rain. Here is the precipitation map starting tonight.

As you can see mostly rain tonight, but northwest NJ into Pa will see some back end snow. Any light accumulations will be in those areas especially over PA. 

Going into Sunday is the bigger system. Here is the evolution...

Sunday evening

Looking above, snow spreads into the area with a lot of icing along the App mountains as show by the pink areas. Notice the high pressure area to the north that is supplying the cold air. This high pressure now begins to get pressed out of the area by early Monday morning causing a rain event for most areas and a potentially moderate icing event for areas north and west...

Looking above by Monday morning most areas in NJ are rain, but out in PA and Northwest NJ it still is an ice event with snow in upstate NY. Those areas will be the most effected by dangerous conditions from this Storm. 

Here is my first estimate on what the effects will be..I will update this Saturday night with final map. Again for the Northern areas of NJ Ice will be more of the issue than snow. The cold air looks like it wants to hold its ground despite the upper layers of atmosphere warming. Everyone in NJ ends as rain by daybreak Monday . The good news is no one will be traveling during the worst part of this storm.(this is a moderate storm, by no means a major event but it still will create hazardous conditions to the north and west) 

Updates coming frequently up to the event with a in depth video on Saturday late afternoon. 

Also on twitter @weatherwilly

European Model Says More Snow

The Euro model continues to insist there will be decent accumulating snow before this changes over to rain on Monday..

The GFS not so much for NJ..

I will take a closer look tonight, but I still think European is overdone and that northwest NJ sees 3-5 inches. In any event it looks like inland areas are in for decent snowfall. Ice in will be a big issue for this system as well. I will put out my first prediction tomorrow. 

Snow/Ice/Rain to Effect the Area Sunday into Monday

Details in video below..

Cold to the West Warm in the East

I am still keeping my eye on the unsettled weather towards the end of this week into early next week. The question is not will it rain but how quickly it will change to rain on Sunday. Right now I would say a little accumulation in the northern counties maybe a few inches before it changes over to ice then rain Sunday night. Before hand on Friday we will see some rain enter the area which might end in some flakes late Friday night. Although most of the country is in a very cold weather pattern, it does not support a cold and stormy east coast yet. Once we get some high pressure over Greenland which might happen later this month, it is game on. Until then check out how cold it is in the center of the country towards end of this week..

Departures from normal- over 30 degrees below normal in pink spots!

More detail on the late weekend situation and pattern for December tonight. It would be nice if we could squeeze out a few inches to start the season. 

Monday Morning: Look at the Week Ahead

Good morning everyone. The slight chance at a coastal storm I mentioned is no longer there for Tuesday and Wednesday as the development will stay off shore. For the next five days we will see temperatures rebound and experience a nice warm up over our area.  Notice the next shot of arctic air by Saturday where temps will again dive down into the low 30's for highs. 

The image below shows how extensive this air mass will be. The grey colors indicate very cold air. 

As this cold air presses, waves of low pressure will develop along its eastern edge which targets our region. Right now it looks like starting late this week we will see shots at rain/sleet/snow as an active southern jet stream overruns this cold air. By early next week you can see one of those larger waves trying to develop over our region..

Looks like a potential ice event on our hands especially in the App Mountains. Some models trying to have accumulating snow during this period but I am not yet fully convinced...

I will have more on the evolution of this press of late week arctic air this week.