First Stab at Winter Weather Effecting Our Region Sunday Night

QUICK 430PM UPDATE: Everything looks on track. Flakes should fly tonight mostly accumulating in northwest Jersey. Will keep and eye on Sunday and cut video tomorrow.  Also note totals on map below are for both events combined.

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Good morning. This weekend I will cut the usual play by play video of how the event will unfold, but for now here are my preliminary thoughts on what to expect with the wintery precipitation that will effect our area possibly tonight then again on Sunday night. For most areas the main concern will be icy roads before the inevitable changeover to rain late Sunday night. Our far northwest counties into PA will receive the most snow and ice before it ends as rain. Here is the precipitation map starting tonight.

As you can see mostly rain tonight, but northwest NJ into Pa will see some back end snow. Any light accumulations will be in those areas especially over PA. 

Going into Sunday is the bigger system. Here is the evolution...

Sunday evening

Looking above, snow spreads into the area with a lot of icing along the App mountains as show by the pink areas. Notice the high pressure area to the north that is supplying the cold air. This high pressure now begins to get pressed out of the area by early Monday morning causing a rain event for most areas and a potentially moderate icing event for areas north and west...

Looking above by Monday morning most areas in NJ are rain, but out in PA and Northwest NJ it still is an ice event with snow in upstate NY. Those areas will be the most effected by dangerous conditions from this Storm. 

Here is my first estimate on what the effects will be..I will update this Saturday night with final map. Again for the Northern areas of NJ Ice will be more of the issue than snow. The cold air looks like it wants to hold its ground despite the upper layers of atmosphere warming. Everyone in NJ ends as rain by daybreak Monday . The good news is no one will be traveling during the worst part of this storm.(this is a moderate storm, by no means a major event but it still will create hazardous conditions to the north and west) 

Updates coming frequently up to the event with a in depth video on Saturday late afternoon. 

Also on twitter @weatherwilly