New Years Eve Update: Tracking Winter Storm Potential for Sunday Jan 7th

 Good morning and I hope everyone has a Happy New Year!

As the New Year gets underway and our pattern change starts progressing, I like what I see for a winter storm threat next weekend. Those of you who have been following me on X, know I have been discussing this over the last several days. Models are not starting to hone in on what may happen.

Lets take a look...

A storm moves off shore on Thursday and this will pave the way for our main event potential in its wake...

This storm helps set up a block in the atmosphere which gives the next storm cold air to work with...

A block means high pressure which supplies cold air that can lock in and not retreat when a storm system arrives. The result is a chance of a winter storm next weekend.

The GFS model shows one scenario

While the European model shows another...

At this time I like this area shaded for best snowfall potential if this materializes...

In terms of accumulations its very early but if this did come together its a 6-12 type storm.

Stay tuned more updates to come!

Tuesday Update: Major Pattern Change and Snow Potential into New Year

 

Merry Christmas: Major Pattern Change after NYE

January has potential to be quite the wintery month this year. Stay tuned for details.

Merry Christmas!

Sunday Update: Major Storm, Rain and Winds Tonight

 Good morning. We have a major storm system that will be approaching the area later today into tomorrow morning. This is a rapidly deepening low pressure system associated with two-phased jet streams. What this means is heavy rain will move in tonight and winds will be gusting likely over 40 mph at times. In the wake of the system colder air moves in with the possibility of a few snow showers.

Here's our current storm system on satellite. Notice how impressive it looks...

This makes it up the coast and hits our region by tonight...

Just after midnight you're going to notice the wind's really picking up. Here are modeled wind gusts, often overdone but still very impressive...

Storm pulls out by later tomorrow morning.

Cold air takes over with a snow showers. Things then get mild towards Christmas with the chance of some activity again between Christmas and New years. Even though it will not be that cold we still have to watch for storm development around the 27th to 28th.

That's all for now. 

Saturday Update: A Closer Look at Tomorrow' Storm

 Driving rain storm tomorrow, but some snow may come in on the back end for areas like NW NJ NE PA etc. Video below breaks it down. 

Wednesday Update: Winter is Coming

Good morning.  Some light snow possible tomorrow. A storm then cuts to our west with rain early next week. In the wake of this storm I believe the winter pattern sets in. Need to watch between the 14th-18th for storm development. Enjoy the video.

Friday Weather Pattern Update: More Snow for Ski Country, Sneaky Cold Shot Next Week

 

Monday Update: Arctic Air Incoming, Snow Showers Possible Tomorrow

 

Shot at Snow Next Week? Still Speculation, But Some Ingredients are There

Friday the 17th: First Snowfall Potential Could be Week after Thanksgiving

Good afternoon. Some colder air moves in later this weekend. We then have a storm that approaches the area on Wednesday with some rain and snow across the far interior ski areas. 

In the wake of this storm, the coldest air of the season will arrive next weekend. As the cold boundary is established Thanksgiving weekend, we then have to look for a wave of low pressure to develop along it early the following week.

Lets take a quick look...

Storm moves in on Wednesday before thanksgiving with snow in ski areas..

Coldest air of the season then arrives in its wake next weekend. Temps go into 30s for highs..

It is along this cold air boundary we need to watch for a storm to develop that could be wintery in nature.

The setup reminds me of December 5th 2002 but likely further north.

Here was Dec 5th 2002...

Adjust this 50 miles north and thats what I think could potentially happen. 

Stay tuned, speculation for now. 

November Update: Winter Around Corner

 Winer season is approaching, which means more posting frequency on this blog. We will start to see snows accumulate across interior northeast in ski areas next few weeks. As we get into early Dec, we can see snow get closer to the coast. I will say however that I do not expect the most favorable pattern for areas closer to the coast until late Dec.

I will be discussing this more in the coming weeks!

Look forward to sharing ideas this upcoming season. 

The 2024 Winter Outlook

Good evening. Welcome to the 2024 Winter Outlook! Below you will find my forecast maps then a short video breaking down the forecast. I hope you enjoy! If all goes according to plan I think we will see a decent amount of the white stuff this year. Time will tell.

Temperatures:

Snowfall (X Normal):

Average annual snowfall for reference: Click to Enlarge

The Forecast Video:

WINTER OUTLOOK IS OUT 8PM TONIGHT

WINTER OUTLOOK 2024 IS OUT MONDAY OCTOBER 16TH

 Cold season is approaching which means this blog picks back up in activity. Stay tuned!

Morning Storm Update: On Track

Good morning. Our storm is blowing up off the coast this morning smashing areas like Mass and southern VT with heavy snow. Rain will be changing to snow further south this morning into the afternoon...

Surface is still warm so accumulations will stay in the high elevations of NW NJ etc. Expect 1-3" of snow there. Here is latest model snowfall through today..

Storm bombs off the Gulf of Maine tonight with heavy wind gusts for many...

When its all said and done I think we see a few local 30" reports in areas of the Berkshires and Southern Greens. 

Monday Night Storm Update

 

Monday Update: Final Forecast for Tonight into Tomorrow

 Good morning. Below is my final forecast for tonight's storm. I adjusted things a little to account for warmer air at the surface. For areas like NNJ PA, its all elevation driven tonight.

Here is updated forecast...

In terms of storm evolution, I like what the model below shows, see loop from tonight into Wednesday morning...

Notice how this model picks up elevation driven snow and rain near coasts. This makes sense to me.

Stay tuned for video update later this afternoon with a play by play! Rush hour should be fine today. 

Sunday: Updated Forecast for Big Storm

Good afternoon. Below is my updated forecast and video discussion on how I see this storm evolving. This is a rapidly developing situation and there could be surprises. For now, this is my best estimate on how things evolve. There is an outside chance this can hit NYC and NNJ harder but that is not my forecast at this time.

I will have a final update out tonight or tomorrow morning.

Saturday Update: Big Storm to Slam Northeast Monday Night into Wednesday

 Good morning. Our snowfall this morning was certainty an elevation driven event. The higher elevations of NW NJ reported up to 6" with close to nothing in the lower areas.

All attention now turns to a big storm that will hit the Northeast early next week. At this time I like New England as the main target zone with potentially some wintery impacts back into NE PA and NNJ. This has the potential to be the biggest storm of the season for many areas. Below is my initial estimate of what I think happens. I will be updating daily...

Models have their usual spread but at this time I like the Canadian. I say this because I think it is handling the mid level energy the best and the track it takes is in line with storms similar in history

Here is the evolution below Monday to Wednesday.....

Notice how the low develops off the coast and gets pulled in slamming areas like Mass. WE can easily see totals over 2 feet in spots. My map is conservative for now. Also notice how NNJ has a shot to get in on it. Remember this is just a model projection and things will change. I just am showing this because it closest resembles what I think happens. 

Stay tuned, a lot of coverage to come.

Friday Afternoon: Forecast for Tonight

 Below is my final update: Snow hits only the highlands of NJ tonight then some snow makes it more east by tomorrow morning....

We then have a major storm early next week. Stay tuned for who I think gets impacted. 

Thursday Afternoon Update: Snow for Some Tomorrow Night

Below is my updated forecast for a storm that will move in tomorrow night into early Sat morning. At this time you need to be NW at high elevations to see anything notable with this. Most of NJ i do not think this is a big issue. In fact, most of state sees rain to start with snow at end Saturday morning. My map below is my updated forecast...

Notice the cutoff outside NW NJ. 

Storm moves in after rush out for most as rain and snow to northwest...

As storm redevelops off coast by early Saturday morning, rain can change to snow for many areas...

Travel Saturday morning may be tricky for some.

We then turn our attention to a potential major storm for New England early next week. More to come on this. 

Wednesday Update: Snow Hits Areas Friday Night

 Good morning. We have another round of snow that will impact parts of the area late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Below are my initial thoughts on what this system will produce. I will update this daily. After this storm, there could be a larger storm next week, but I think that is more New England focused. With this strong March sun any snow that does fall melts quickly. 

Here is my initial forecast...

Snow approaches from west on Friday. Initially its too warm in lower lying areas to see snow...

By late Friday night snow starts to work more south...

Notice still that the coastal plain of NJ still is rain. The fall line changes to snow at the end which could produce an inch or two down there by early Sat morning as low takes over on the coast...

Stay tuned, daily updates to come!

Monday Update: Narrow Band of Snow Late Tonighjt

 Good morning. We have a wildcard snow event tonight. This means a narrow potentially quick burst of snow is possible for some areas. It is a little hard to predict exactly where this band occurs but I will give you a general idea below...

By just before Midnight, a narrow band approaches through PA...

I would say plus or minus 30 miles of where this band sets up. My gut says the new NAM model above is not a bad idea...

The snow will be heavier out in PA but still should make it to NJ.

Here is the model snow output...

After this period we need to watch late this weekend for a potential storm. I think its back into southern New England but Mid Atlantic is technically in play...

Winter is certaintly not over for New England till towards end of this month.

Friday Update: No Changes

 Forcast is on track. Stay tuned for live coverage from Northern VT!

Thursday Storm Update: Heavy Snow in Ski Country, Sleet and Rain South

Good morning. Below is my updated forecast for a storm that will move in Friday night through Saturday. Overall anyone south of New England sees mostly rain with this. Some sleet will mix in initially in areas like NW NJ N PA etc. Across far interior (ski country) a heavy snowfall will occur. Sandwiched in-between i expect a mixed bag of snow and sleet. Timing is late Friday night through Saturday. Lets take a look...

A strong storm is developing to our west which by tomorrow will run into high pressure and then redevelop off the east coast...

The storm to the west hits high pressure so it redevelops. However, warm air is still able to work its way in aloft causing mixed precipitation over southern New England...

Notice how its heavy snow in the far interior by early Sat morning. By mid morning Saturday the storm is in its later stages...

Areas in Southern New England should turn back to snow at this time. This is why I have 3-6 inches there.

Storm pulls out by Saturday afternoon.

Stay tuned, more updates to come next 24 hours. 

Wednesday Update: Storm Moves in Friday Night

 Good morning. Our last storm worked out quite nicely, overall the forecast idea was a success.

Moving forward, we have a big storm that will impact the area Friday night into Saturday. At this time I expect an initial burst of snow in areas like NNJ NE PA into southern New England that will change to sleet and some rain. To the north over interior New England, it will be a major snowstorm.

Here is my initial forecast idea...

This is a rough idea and I will update this again tomorrow morning. You can see where I am targeting the heavy snow.

In term of timing this does not look to get started until after 6pm on Friday night. I do not anticipate any rush hour travel impacts. The storm ends late Saturday morning. 

As usual the weather models are offering different solutions. I always make my forecast based on what I think will occur not necessarily what they are showing now. 

The European models idea doesn't seem too bad...

As you can see that initial burst of snow changes to ice (orange) and rain to the south.

Stay tuned, more to come!

Monday: No Changes to Forecast, Storm Moves in Tonight

 Good morning. There are no changes to my snowfall forecast from yesterday. The storm moves in tonight between 5 to 8pm west to east. Snow will be heavy at times late tonight into tomorrow morning. Storm ends by mid morning and lingers into the afternoon up in interior New England.

 A larger storm then is on tap to hit the area on Friday. At this time I am thinking heavy snow over New England with a mix to the south. I will be discussing this starting tomorrow. 

The snowfall forecast...

Here is the play by play...

Snow enters the area between 5-8pm depending how far east you live...

By 11pm it is snowing in all areas from I-78 north with the heaviest over NNJ into New England...

By the morning the storm starts to taper off with snow showers lingering all day up in New England...

Things then warm up by mid week before the arrival of a big storm on Friday. At this time the pattern fits the interior to get blasted with heavy snow with a mix further south. What the GFS model is showing below is a good general starting point. I will be discussing this alot more by tomorrow...

Stay tuned for some live updates tonight!

Sunday Afternoon Update: My Snowfall Forecast for Monday Night-Tuesday

Good afternoon, below is my initial snowfall forecast for tomorrow night into Tuesday. I will have a big update out early tomorrow morning to keep everyone up to speed.

Snow moves in by tomorrow evening between 5-9pm and ends Tuesday morning. 

Stay tuned for more details!

Sunday Update: Colder Trends, Snow down to NJ and PA

 Good Morning. I'll have an update out this afternoon around 2:00 p.m. In the meantime the storm for tomorrow night into Tuesday morning  is trending colder. This means you can anticipate accumulating snow all the way down to northern New Jersey and into PA. Below is a projection from the GFS model. This can be used as a rough projection for now. I'll be releasing my own snowfall forecast later what will hone in on more details.

Stay tuned for my updated forecast this afternoon.