Thursday: Hunting for Next Storm

Good morning. Snow has been in no shortage this November. Our region got the first significant snowfall two weeks back and the Mountains of New England got up to two feet in some areas over last two days.

So whats next? When is the next shot at snow for our area? I got my eyes on two periods, December 4/5 and December 9th/10th. The main target is the 9th/10th.

November so far is shaping up very similar to what my Forecast maps projected...

Actual temps...

My Forecast based on analogs...

In case anyone is wondering here is my December forecast....

We will see how this plays out. My forecast calls for a very active storm track from the gulf to the Northeast.

Moving on, lets take a look at storm threats....

Starting off, things warm up this weekend as rain moves through the Northeast Saturday...

Cold air will then return in this storms wake for early next week. Models have been hinting at a wave of energy that can develop by mid week...

If this sharpens up more than shown, it will cause a low pressure center to move through the region causing light to moderate snow. Something to watch for the Wednesday time frame.

Moving on, cold air stays in place for the rest of the week ahead of what might be a bigger storm threat for later next weekend...

The map above shows the setup for 10 days from now. Keep in mind this is the long range but there are some variables taking shape. What you are seeing in a lot of energy entering the pattern and tapping into gulf moisture. Given the fact there is blocking in place, cold air could stay locked in ahead of this moisture causing a big storm to develop for late next weekend/early next week.

Right now models are hinting this can happen at the surface...

Something to keep an eye on for sure! I will be away in Hawaii so that will increase the chances of this happening. 


Stay tuned. We have a lot of active weather the next two weeks.

Monday: Snowstorm For New England Mountains on Tap

Good morning. I hope everyone had a happy Thanksgiving. It sure was a cold one and reminded us all Winter is on our doorstep.

The region in our neck of the woods dealing with Winter today is New England. A low pressure system will ride east later today and develop off the coast as we head into tomorrow morning. Heavy snows can be expected in most of the Mountains. I would say a general 8 to 14 inches is a good bet....

Ski country will continue their fast start with this one!

In the wake of this storm things cool down again for all regions tomorrow through Friday bringing that chill back into the air. Temps will hover in the low 40s for highs.

The active pattern then continues with another storm system that will move in by the weekend...

There is yet another chance the mtns of New England see snow with this if the low stays far enough south Saturday into Sunday. For most other regions its a rain storm.


So what does the long range look like? In general, I see an up and down pattern over the next two weeks. There will be cold shots followed by some moderation. I would focus on possibly the 2nd week of December for the next shot that the pattern might be optimal for a snow event. 

More to come. 

Wednesday Update: Frozen Turkey Tomorrow (Record Cold)

Good morning. We will likely experience the coldest Thanksgiving on record tomorrow for most areas. Temperatures will plummet into the teens and single digits by tomorrow morning and struggle to reach past the low 20's for many for highs. Wind chills will be in the single digits for many!

Lets take a look. Please click all images to make bigger. 

Tomorrow at 7am...

Grey areas are below zero!

Wind chills at the same time (7am).  This is absolutely brutal, notice the sub zero wind chills making their way down to NJ!

By 2pm things don't get too much better. Temps hover in the low 20's and much colder in New England...

Wind chills stay fridgid...

So why are we seeing record cold? All due to a quick visit from a piece of the polar vortex...

Things stay cold Friday then moderate for the weekend some.

We then turn to next week which after some rain on Sunday needs to be watched for storm development.

More to come! Happy Thanksgiving. 

Monday Update: Coldest Thanksgiving on Record?

Good morning. As my headline states, we could be in store for the coldest Thanksgiving on record this year. A visit from a piece of the polar vortex means bitter cold is on tap for Turkey Day. As we then head into the longer range I have my eyes on the potential for east coast storm development for the last week of November. 

Before we discuss that, New England will be dealing with a light to moderate snow event early tomorrow as a wave of low pressure develops over the region...

For areas primarily north and west of I-84 in Mass into the interior expect 3 to 6 inches of snow to fall with some local higher amounts in the high elevations. Coastal Maine also gets in on the action. No impacts to big cities like Boston, but for southern Ski Country and the Berkshires this will be yet another snowfall!


We then move to the cold blast. Air directly from the north pole will descend down into the region Wednesday night...

This air brings with it a massive area of cold high pressure...

This means business as temperatures will plummet to record lows for Thanksgiving. Check out the next three frames from Thanksgiving morning to afternoon to Friday morning. Click to make bigger.

In case you can't tell. Temperatures will be in the teens to low 20's for many Thanksgiving morning and not break out of the 20's during the day. They then plummet again into the teens for Friday morning.  For up in interior new England subzero temps are likely for lows and single digit for highs in Mtn areas!!

This will likely be the coldest Thanksgiving on record. 

Things then will warm up for the tail end of that weekend with a warmer storm system effecting the region with some rain.

We then turn to the week following thanksgiving. I have my eye on the period from the 26th to 1st for east coast winter storm development. Too early to work out the details but I like what I see from the pattern...

Despite the fact we may see some Rain early that week, based on the pattern above I would not be surprised to see a winter storm develop middle to end of that week.

We will revisit this as the days go on.

Bundle up!

Saturday: Throwback to Thursday's Storm

Footage I never posted. Enjoy.  More to come on the upcoming pattern into Thanksgiving Monday morning. Its going to be a cold one! 

Evening Update: Well That Didn't Go As Expected

What a day it was. For November 15th, I never would of expected what just unfolded. Usually with these early season storms the warm air does win but today felt like mid-January! The cold air in the mid levels of the atmosphere held on much longer than modeled and resulted in a moderate thump of snow for the region at the worst possible time of the day. The roads are a compete disaster. The quick transition to sleet I expected never occurred until hours later (happening now). As the clock approaches 7pm, snow is winding down for most of CNJ and transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. This process will now advance more north as we get through the night. For our friends in New England, they still have hours of snow ahead.

Animation below shows how the trend of models fliped to colder in the mid atmosphere notice last 2 frames the batch of blue taking over. Big correction with massive forecast implications.

So it appears most of the region from the NW suburbs of Phili to CNJ and NNJ got anywhere from 3 to 8 inches of snow so far! I have around 6.5-7" in my backyard in Morristown NJ (northern NJ).

This was much more than what my forecast was. It kills me to kick off the season with a big L but if my Winter Forecast pans out, there will be many more events to rack up the points on. 

So here is what the current radar looks like over the area...

You can now see the rain to the south and the mixing making its way north.

Our friends in New England have a while to go and will see several inches pile up overnight.

As I mentioned I am amazed with this cold air mass, check out the current temps...

These will actually warm later tonight as that warm air from the south finally wins out.

However, as the upper level low passes tomorrow morning we can see one more burst of winter precipitation around daybreak in areas to the north and west...

In the wake of this storm system things calm down but stay generally cold. There is a chance this snow sticks around for Thanksgiving this year for some areas.

As we approach December the weather pattern screams winter with high pressure over the top and storminess underneigh..

We got a long stretch ahead folks! Buckle up.

1230pm Update: Hunker Down, Snow Incoming

 Video Update: This storm is packing a punch, stay safe out there...

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Quick update. I hate to do it but I need to update my forecast and adjust amounts higher. This is due to current observations of very heavy snowfall rapidly spreading north. The warm air aloft is not spreading over the region as fast as I originally thought. This means longer period of snow before sleet.

New Map..

Wall of snow rapidly approaching. Its time to start heading home...

Sleet line is still way south...

Surface temps are cold still which mean bad roads...

Expect 4 to 5 hrs of impressive snowfall rates.


Next update in a few hours. 

Morning Update: Everything is On Track

Good morning. Looking at all the updated data and observations this morning, my forecast is on track...

It is COLD out there this morning so despite the fact the snow will quickly change to sleet for most this afternoon (light blue and pink zones) there will be impacts.

Expect a front end thump of snow this afternoon. All indicators are it comes in hard and fast with high snowfall rates for a few hours. This means roads can really deteriorate quickly for some areas. Even after sleet changeover the surface still stays freezing. Bottom Line: not a good time to travel later this afternoon.

I took my pink zone and split it in half to turn the old 1-4 inches into two zones of 1-3 and 2-4. The impacts will be mainly from early this afternoon through this evening. So not a good evening commute today. Areas in interior PA into New England stay all snow. Someone will see 8"+ out there.

Current radar shows the storm approaching...

It is currently very cold out there...

The short range HRRR models does a good job showing how the storm evolves with the ice making its way in after a few hours of snow...

A concern of mine is how hard it may snow before this changes over. The short range guidance also shows snowfall rate of up to 2" per hours by middle of this afternoon..

This would be a disaster for the evening commute.

Buckle up! Winter is here and things will not be warming up too much through Thanksgiving.

Update later when storm is underway.

7pm Update: Winter Storm Tomorrow Brings More Sleet than Snow

Good evening. The video below is my latest breakdown on exactly what to expect tomorrow. I am not changing my forecast map issued this morning. Expect a quick thump of snow quickly changing to sleet in the pink zone. Timing for NNJ is early afternoon into evening. I am not in the camp of the snowfall forecasts that are calling for 5-8 inches. I explain why in my video.

More to come tomorrow.  P.S. there could be a back end band of snow Friday morning as the storm exits. I did not mention this in the video.

**Below is the tweaked forecast as of 830pm. I wanted to be more specific for the old 1-4" pink zone.**

Wednesday Morning: Updated Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning. I have made a few tweaks to my original map posted yesterday morning. We will have our first winter event of the season tomorrow. Granted, this will not be a winter event for the whole duration. Regardless, it will have enough impacts to remind people the season has changed!

I will have another update tonight. 

Summary:

• Mixed bag winter storm to impact region tomorrow
• Timing
• Mid morning Thursday to Friday morning
• Winter precip changes over to rain by Thursday evening for most
• 3-5 hr window of winter impacts
• Snow breaks out for most areas ex southern green zone Thursday morning and then will change to sleet then plain rain by Thursday evening
• A few inches can pile up before the changeover (1-4) in the pink zone
• Areas on western side of pink zone favored for higher end of the 1-4 range
• Given the cold surface temps I do expect road impacts for many areas in pink zone*
• Blue zone sees a general 4-8 inches with some mixing.
• There is a chance we see a final burst of snow again as the storm exits Friday morning.

Updated Map:

Storm evolution:

Been a tricky forecast but overall my ideas yesterday are on track. You'll notice I made a few tweaks to the map but nothing major.

Very cold air ahead of this storm at the surface tomorrow morning (click to make bigger)...

This means as our storm approaches there will be no issue with snow sticking...

The mid levels of the atmosphere warm tho causing snow to change to sleet then freezing rain then rain after a few hours...

I think we get a few hours of accumulating snow before this happens. Given the surface temps and the amount of moisture we will pick up the 1-4 inches in a short window.

Then we have several hours of ice to rain...

Then as the storm departs Friday morning we can get a surprise burst of snow as the upper level low moves over our area. Models are having a hard time seeing this but it can happen...

In the wake of this storm very cold air moves in for the weekend into Thanksgiving week. Things just aren't going to let up this year if my winter forecast ideas are correct. 

Winter then really starts as we get to the tail end of Nov. 

Stay tuned for tonight's update. 

Tuesday Evening Update: Snow Will Fall Thursday

Video below breaks down my updated thoughts. Updated forecast map out tomorrow morning. Overall I will be adjusting this mornings map to show more accumulating snow throughout NNJ and southern New England. A general 1-3 or maybe even 2-4 inches with higher amounts to the NW can be expected Thursday morning into early afternoon before a changeover to ice and rain. There now will appear to be some travel impacts Thursday mid morning into the afternoon with this anyone north of I-78.

Tuesday: Winter Weather to Hit Areas Thursday

Good morning. As we approach the next storm that will hit the area Thursday into Friday, it is time to estimate what the impacts will be. It is shaping up to be the first winter storm of the season for many areas off the coast and of course I will give you my initial thoughts on what will happen. 

Here is my preliminary impact map:

Summary:

• Expect snow to spread into the Pink and Blue zone by mid morning to early afternoon Thursday
• No travel impacts expected in pink zone unless at higher elevations
• Some flakes can fly in the northern part of the Green Zone but mostly a liquid event for those areas
• By Friday afternoon/Evening expect any snow in pink zone to change to ice than plain rain
• Areas in the blue zone should stay mostly snow
• When it is all said and done expect some minor accumulations in the higher elevations of the pink zone and moderate accumulations in the blue zone

A very complex forecasting scenario here as its is a race against time in terms of when the precipitation arrives Thursday and when the cold air leaves.

Many models do show the initial burst of snow/mixed precip Thursday morning or afternoon (timing uncertain)...

Although things will be cold at the surface, warm air will quickly try to work in aloft within hours of the event starting. This means many areas change to sleet then rain (pink zone). Below you can see how the cold air is fighting the warm air at 5000ft. Basically blue is cold enough for snow green is not.

Notice how the blue retreats then trys to filter back in. This is a classic case of snow to start then mixed precip as the cold air mixes with warm aloft.

Many models try to show this the best they can. Pink is mixing.

There snow printouts for any area south of New England and central PA are 100% wrong due to sleet being counted as snow...

THIS IS WRONG!

So the bottom line is this, many areas off the coast see their first winter precipitation of the season on Thursday but there will be limited impacts unless you are at an elevation above 800ft or into the interior blue zone. This is nothing to get concerned about for most.

I will have frequent updates including one tonight.

Welcome to winter!!