A very wet coastal storm will effect our area Thursday-Sunday. The core of heaviest rains from south to north (DC to NYC) will be between early morning on Thursday and early morning Friday. I am very confident at this time that both these days will be total washouts. The big question becomes how much moisture remains in the area for the weekend. At this time I am calling for showers for all day Saturday and continuing into Sunday for the Baltimore DC area. When it is all said and done expect 2-4 inches of rain with the heaviest core right over the MD region. This storm will form as the result of two separate disturbances merging. The first one being the remnants of tropical storm Karen the other being another wave of low pressure coming in from off shore. Both these disturbances are shown below..
The difference right now between the European model and the GFS is the Euro along with the Canadian really feed the offshore storm into the coastal storm producing a longer wetter event. The GFS try's to separate the two and shoot the storm on the right out to sea. I am not buying that solution at this time due to the fact the model has been playing catch up all week. I think if you reduce the rain amounts on the European a little you have a forecast. In any event we have alot of rain on the way especially the further south you go. The rain should linger and finally clear out by the end of the weekend.
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