Keep an Eye on Storm Tracks Next 60 Days

Good morning, as I have been mentioning over last week a big pattern change is coming to colder weather over the east this weekend. This pattern change will be due to a strong ridge developing over the Gulf of Alaska and Western Canada with will in turn drive the jet stream down into the eastern part of the country bringing cold Canadian air into the mix. Below image is latest model forecast for next weekend.

Notice the blue extending down from Canada as the cold air bleeds into the country. Notice however the brown area just off the east coast. That is a stubborn Southeast Ridge in the Jet Stream and it is a variable that might have to be worked into my winter forecast. When you get ridging off the coast like this in many cases it pushed storm track more towards the great lakes and produces rain for the east despite strong blocking high pressure to the north. I am going to keep a close eye on storm tracks next two months and see if most of them follow this path due to this ridge. A storm looks like it might want to develop late next weekend as shown below..

If you look closely you can see two pieces of energy one diving in from the north the other from the south. The speed and timing on these two features along with the south east ridge I just mentioned will dictate where this storm will go. Right now it cuts inland which in the winter would be a rain event for our area. I will mention the European model is the only model showing a possible phasing of these two systems this weekend, so this is all speculation at this point.  I think the European is seeing something the other models aren't and i think we will have an inland running storm towards end of weekend. 

In any event the big news is it will get a lot colder, take a look at temperature departures from normal next week..

The core will absolutely be centered over Ohio valley and plains. The east will see some below normal temps but not to the extent of the mid section of the country. For anyone who is familiar with the MJO it supports this set up along with the southeast ridge. 

Thanks for checking in.

@weatherwilly