Wednesday, January 31, 2018

Update Tonight

Early next week really has my attention for a coastal storm. Will comment at 8pm. My post yesterday has my initial thoughts.

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

Tuesday Weather Update: Pattern Change Underway, Snow Chances Will Increase

Good morning. At last we will have seasonable temperatures return this week with a more noticeable change by next week. I discussed last week how by the 2nd week of February possibly into early March would feature a pattern that is colder than normal and possibly snowy for the eastern 1/3 of the country. Everything in that regard appears to be on track and today I will hone in on some details including snow chances. In particular I am focused on early next week for a potential impact storm. 


As we move through this week, the evolution of our weather pattern continues to change as a ridge of high pressure starts to build over Alaska. This blocks mild pacific air from entering the country and allows cold air from the north to funnel south...

The pattern you see above should almost lock in for most of this month with shots of brutally cold air impacting the central plains and bleeding towards the east coast at times. This is pretty impressive guys and it all is seeded in those factors I discussed last week (stratosphere,MJO, seasonal responses).

Our first shot at some snow may come Friday as a coastal wave can produce some light to maybe moderate snow...

I am not sold on anything too impactful here but it is worth mentioning as this could end up putting down a few inches in spots.

My bigger focus is early next week. There are a few factors I like to see on the maps that can produce a bigger storm.

For one cold air will be in place by the end of the weekend...


We then have an upper air pattern that will feature evidence of blocking high pressure over Greenland and a potential amplifying ridge of high pressure out west...


Now this is something to really watch in my opinion for Monday or Tuesday next week. I love seeing that block near Greenland as it will help slow the flow down and help consolidate energy.

At this time models are flirting with showing a storm developing at the surface...

We will see if things start to trend more impressive. I will not be surprised to see that happen.

In any event, things will stay active past early next week as that cold air locks in. If we do not see snow on the ground by the middle of February I will be surprised. 

Stay tuned, I will be updating frequently. 

Monday, January 29, 2018

Monday Note

I am wrapping up my ski trip to Stowe today. We have some big pattern changes looming along with chances for the white stuff. I will comment more tomorrow.

Thursday, January 25, 2018

Thursday Weather Note

Good morning. As we await the pattern change I discussed on Monday, I thought I would hone in on the first potential arctic outbreak. 

Models are indicating we could see our first real shot around the  Superbowl...

 I am very confident bitterly cold air enters this pattern the question I have is where does it center?  In the image above you can see the whole eastern 1/3 is in the freezer Superbowl Sunday. Other models however have the cold centered more west..


Given what we have seen this winter I am favoring the eastern bleed of the arctic air. We will see it hit the plains first then bleed into the east coast. 

In any event, I think once this pattern arrives it holds for most of February. Naturally we will see some snow with air masses like this, but for big storms I would like to see a little more high pressure over Greenland (-NAO)

On Monday there is an outside chance New England sees snow from an inverted trough (very hard to predict these things)...


The threat of that bigger storm out to sea looks to stay tame at this time. I believe it does stay out to sea so the only chance at snow will be from residual effects of the offshore trough as seen above. Regardless, it will be worth monitoring for changes.

Until then, things warm up for the weekend as a warm front moves into the region.

Thats all for now. 

Monday, January 22, 2018

Monday Pattern Update: A Thaw For Now, Winter Returns in February

Summary:


  • Warmer than normal temperatures continue over the next 10 days or so
  • Evidence is building for a flip to cold by the 2nd week of February
  • This would mean impressive cold and snow can impact the region
  • Various factors including research from my winter forecast support this outcome


Good morning. As we all thaw out from the recent frigid temperatures, the natural question is will this warm weather continue. In short, it will continue for another 10 days or so then winter should return pretty boldly as we get into February. Many of the factors I look at including the research done for my winter outlook support this.

Our current pattern features all the action out west with milder temperatures in the east...

Notice the trough bleeding into California and the warmer colors over the east. This is our thaw. 

All indications are this starts to flip in about 10 days...


The rising pressures off the west coast will allow arctic air to enter the pattern again and press into the east coast. This isn't too different from the pattern that we saw from the end of December into early January that caused the brutal cold.

My winter forecast analogs support this outcome for February...

Notice the cold pool near the northeast and the ridge in the gulf of Alaska. 

These same analogs held up well for December vs the actual outcome...


Left was my forecast right is actual for December. Not too far off.


There are also other factors such as the MJO pattern and the Stratosphere that are adding to this support for a cold February.

When we move way up into the stratosphere you can see models project that we can see some warming occur, which could push the polar vortex off its axis..


This would mean much colder temperatures for the eastern 1/3 of the country about 2.5 weeks after this happens.

A final factor to look at is the MJO. Simply put, this is a pattern of thunderstorms in the tropical Indian ocean and the Pacific that moves into different regions. Depending on the region the storms are in influences the jet stream.

Models project that it will move from its current warm regions (4,5,6,7) possibly into a region much more favorable for cold, phase 8 as we get to the end of the first week of February...

This is what phase 8 produces....

So as you can see with have a lot of continuity between the various variables (my winter analogs,the models, the stratosphere, the MJO) to support a cold and stormy February.

I will touch on this more as the period approaches, but for now enjoy the mild weather it is not going to last. 

Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Wednesday Morning Update

Well I can't say I'm too surprised by the lack of  snowfall for many but the overall forecast idea is still a bust for some.

Here are the latest totals I can find...


You can see how there are accumulations in NW NJ and NE PA like I mentioned however anyone I had in the 2 to 4 inch zone will be closer to 1 to 3. That is where i was wrong.

Expect all snow to finally move in over next few hours...


Areas that were all rain change to snow before this ends. Expect a coating to an inch.

Up in New York State and parts of New England the jury is still out as the storm has several hours to go.

I will have a final summary out tnt along with a pattern update. 

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Tuesday Night Storm Update: Elevation is Key For Many

Good evening. My forecast from this morning is on track and snow will begin building into the region later tonight into the early morning. I can not emphasize enough that if you live in NJ you need to be at the higher elevations to see decent snowfall (NW NJ). For lower elevation areas and areas near the coast (CT and RI included), I do not expect anything too impressive. Rain could mix in at times and any snow that falls will struggle to accumulate past 1-2 inches. I tried to reflect this the best I could in my map. Don't say I didn't tell you so if you do not get much with this system (folks closer to the coast), although I think many will be happy with less rather than more snow.

The video below gives a play by play on what to expect:



I will have an early morning update out tomorrow before everyone heads into work. 

Tuesday Storm Update: The Final Forecast

Good morning. A light to moderate snow event will move into many areas tonight into Wednesday morning. For anyone along I-95 to the southeast I do not expect major impacts from this as accumulations should be cut down by some warmer air aloft.

Summary:


  • Some occasional light snow today but nothing too serious
  • Steadier snow moves in tonight and will accumulate to areas to the NW especially at the higher elevations
  • Snow ends south to north tomorrow morning into the early afternoon (New England)
  • For areas closer to the coast expect some mixing which will cut down the accumulations
  • For areas just off the coast the snow will accumulate some but warmer surface temps will keep accumulations tame
  • The hardest hit areas will be in the higher elevations of NW NJ, NE PA then into NY state, CT and Mass

Here is the final snowfall map...


Again, its the higher elevations that will see the upper end of these ranges in my opinion. If you are closer to sea level use the lower number in your range.

Here is an animation of the storm below. Notice how the snow picks up tonight and is very light or non existent today...


I will have an update tonight around 7pm.

Monday, January 15, 2018

6pm Comment

There are no changes to my forecast from this morning. This will be a complicated setup where the timing of when and how close to the coast the low develops Tuesday night will determine boom/bust areas. At this time I am thinking to get respectable snow with this system, you need to be NW of I-95 in the higher elevations of NE PA, NW NJ , southern NY state into Ct and Mass. For eastern NJ and areas near the coast in New England I think you need to be on the lookout for mixing with this system. Accumulations should be tame in those areas where an inch or two will fall.

For areas more south like Baltimore/Washington, you can pick up an inch or maybe two on Tuesday night as the front moves through. Nothing too impactful in my opinion.

Expect the height of this system to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. For hardest hit areas of PA, NW NJ and into Ct and Mass a general 3 to 6 inches can be expected with localized areas in the 4-8 inch range. Again for areas in NJ and PA, its at the higher elevations I expect the bigger impacts.  

My updated map tomorrow morning will reflect my final thoughts.

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Snow In the Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning. Well although last weeks thaw took its toll on our snowpack, winter comes back this week with a light to moderate snow event for the region. 

Summary:


  • light snow moves into the area tomorrow afternoon
  • Snow starts to accumulate by the evening
  • Overall this will not be very intense with the exception of southern New England
  • Storm is at its peak Tuesday night as a coastal low takes over
  • Expect the snow to taper off Wednesday morning for most areas
  • Update will be out at 6pm tonight

So here is my map. For all areas in the 2-4 inch zone I do not expect this to be too intense just a longer duration light snow. For southern New England I do expect things to really pick up Tuesday night...



So lets take a look at whats going on...

A cold front moves into the region tonight into tomorrow...


Low pressure then looks to develop along this front Tuesday night...


The low then intensifies as it reaches New England Wednesday morning...

Off the coast snow growth should be decent with very cold air aloft. Ratios in NW NJ into areas of New England off the coast should  be decent. This means that there should be no problem picking up a few inches. I expect the jackpot with this system to be in northern Ct into Mass. 

In the wake of this storm, milder air moves in for next weekend.


I will have an update out at 6pm tonight, stay tuned!




Friday, January 12, 2018

Friday Note: Need to Watch Middle of Next Week

Good morning. As rain moves through our area today (snow for northern New England tomorrow) the next focus will be on the cold moving in early next week along with the chance a a redeveloping clipper off the east coast...

We need to watch this closely as it can trend to be more amplified which would be snow for the area on Wednesday. At this time I like the idea of light snow for mid-Atlantic and moderate snow for Eastern New England.

The pattern is amplified to support it with a ridge to the west and Atlantic blocking to the east...

More to come on this tonight.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Wednesday Update: Ice In New England, Rain South

Good morning. Quick post today on the weathermaker this weekend.


A low pressure system will ride up a stalled front on Friday night...


Expect heavy snow in western PA, OH and Western NY state with sleet in northern New England with this system. Rain and very mild for all areas to the south on Friday and Saturday.

I do believe this trends a little more south which would still mean sleet but gives the chance at accumulating snow towards the end of the event for the mountains of Northern New England.

Cold air then arrives in its wake towards the end of the weekend.

Next week starts colder and we need to watch a late developing storm system off the east coast towards the middle of next week (will study this more in days to come)..


From there a more up and down pattern is expected with shots of warmer and colder air  as we reach the 7-14 day period. I do not see any sustainable warmups at this time believe it or not, just a transient pattern (back and forth).


I am pressed for time this morning but will have more detail on all of this tomorrow am.

Tuesday, January 9, 2018

Update Tomorrow

No changes to my thoughts from yesterday. Will update tonight/tomorrow. 

Monday, January 8, 2018

Monday Morning Weather Summary: Relief From The Cold

Good morning. For many of you the moderation in temperatures this week will be very welcoming. Today is the last day that temperatures will hover around freezing then we have a warm up coming for the rest of the week.  After a light winter precipitation event tonight, temperatures move into the upper 30's then towards 50 as we get to Friday. The bad news is rain will move in for Friday and Saturday with what I think will be a wintery mix to the north and maybe some New England mountain snows.  By Sunday however temperatures drop back below freezing but its only a short spurt. We will have a pattern change that moderates things for about 10 days then winter should return by the end of January.

Starting with later this afternoon, a light round of winter precip moves in...

Expect some minor impacts with this.

Warmer air then moves in as a ridge of high pressure develops in the east...


As we get to Friday, a low pressure system will cut just to our west bringing with it a cold front that stalls close to the east coast...


A low pressure system then develops along this front as seen above.

However with high pressure to the north I think the models are overdoing how much inland this low cuts...


What will probably happen is this low jumps a little sooner to the coast due to the high pressure which would result in rain for the mid-atlantic but a wintery mix for New England and what I believe can be Mountain snows Saturday...

This will be worth watching closely for any ski fans.

Regardless, cold air then moves in again in its wake Sunday...


This will not be nearly as cold as we just saw but will put a chill back in the air.

We then have our "January Thaw" pattern develop by the middle of next week...


Notice how a trough develops off the west coast of California and bleeds into the US. This causes mild Pacific air to move into the country. The question becomes how long does this last. I believe it lasts a week to 10 days then we go back to a winter pattern. 

Stay tuned, I will be taking a closer look at this weekend as well as the pattern change in the coming days. 

Friday, January 5, 2018

Friday Morning: The Aftermath, Bone Chilling Cold This Weekend

Good morning. Well yesterday was a lot of fun tracking the storm. Appreciate all the followers who checked into this site. I will review the final snow totals and compare them to my forecast. I also will touch on the bone chilling cold this weekend and the long range which will feature maybe the shot at one more storm then a big moderation in temperatures.

So here was the evolution of my forecast...

Monday morning...

Tuesday morning..


Wednesday morning..
Wednesday night (final)...

This map does not show the NJ totals but I will provide a link to them HERE


Starting in New England the forecast worked out really well. A little on the light side as the upper end was over 15" and there were some 18" totals near Boston. The snow did make it inland like I expected.

For NJ the forecast worked out very well for all areas of the interior but was too light for the coastal areas. In my 6-12" zone the totals were more like 10-18" (Brick NJ highest at 18"). 

Overall I did alright with this one. I had a handle on the west shift ahead of time and for the most part hopefully gave everyone an advanced warning compared to other places on the potential of this thing. I will let you guys be the judge.

So moving on...sub zero cold moves in this weekend...

Highs will stay in low teens today and crash into the low single digits tonight. Subzero will be frequent in the north (click to make bigger)..


The coldest air is Sunday morning where even NJ can go sub zero...

Things will then moderate by the middle of next week. 

On Monday, there is a chance at snow as energy will be moving through the area. At this time I do not expect anything major but will monitor closely.

We then need to look towards next weekend for a potential bigger storm. There is a silver lining to all this however as it appears a January thaw is on its way after next week. This means mild temps can take over for 2 weeks or so.

Thats all for now I will update again sometime this weekend. 

Thursday, January 4, 2018

Live Storm Footage: So Impressive

Mid Morning Update: Blizzard Underway, Storm Will Exceed Expectations in Spots

We are now in the height of this storm. Snow and high winds continue into the afternoon. Snow is now really going to pile up in spots. There are already reports of over a foot in coastal areas. It looks like western areas will get in on the action as well. What a scene it is outside!


Morning Storm Update: On Track

Good morning.  Heavy snow has broken out region wide  and is now making its way to the northwest. Do not be fooled if you do not see any snow as of 6am. It will come in hard and fast for all areas to the east of that black line. Models last night actually have shifted west with the heavy snowfall. You can see the heavy snow bands moving in off the ocean below. Winds will also start to pick up as these bands of snow come inland...



The satellite picture this morning is as beautiful as it gets from a meteorological perspective...




Look at the eye like feature as this thing absolutely explodes off the coast. I have never seen a winter storm look like this before. Our current pressure level is in the 960's and falling!

Here is the latest observed low pressure center (bottom right of image)...




Updated model projections take the heavy snow and hit the region very hard this morning into the afternoon...




My forecast is on track...



Cut a video seen below. I will have updates this morning as time permits...







P.S. one more image of this since I can not get over how impressive it is...

]
Stay tuned for updates!

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Wednesday Night Storm Update: A Monster Has Been Born






Summary: 


  • Forecast from this morning is on track
    • I made a few tweaks with increasing snow amounts a little to the west (seen below)
  • Local weather outlets are now on board with the significant snows from the coast to the I-95 
  • This storm rapidly moves in tonight
    • Southern NJ sees snow breakout soon
  • Height of this storm for NJ area is tomorrow morning
  • Winds will be whipping near the coast, blowing the snow around
  • In its wake, brutal record cold moves in for the weekend
I will be updating frequently on twitter and have a blog update first thing in the morning as the storm is underway.


Here is the updated map (also seen in the video)







Wednesday Storm Update: Final Map Is Out, Still Down to The Wire


Summary:

  • High impact winter storm to move into the region late tonight through tomorrow
    • Snow starts before dawn south and after dawn to the north (New England)
    • Snow ends in the afternoon to the south and nighttime in New England
  • Expect gusty winds and blowing snow that will pile up quick in hardest hit areas
    • Expect an all out blizzard in eastern New England
  • There will be a sharp cutoff in snowfall amounts around the I-95 corridor
    • This will come down to the wire and shifts west or east are still possible today 
  • I still believe the snow shield gets a little more west than what most are saying due to the dynamics of the storm
    • Regardless anyone in the 3-6" zone will come right down to the wire on this!
*There will be a prime time update tonight at 8:30 discussing the final forecast trends. Be sure to check in to see if there are any changes.*



Here is my updated forecast: (click all images to make bigger)






Right now public forecasts are fairly conservative for our area......

Could they be correct? Of course, but I am going against the grain a little here expecting this precip gets a little more west than what the consensus says.

Currently our storm is developing off the SE coast...



This will explosively deepen as we approach tomorrow and reach very impressive pressure levels as it moves up the east coast. This means high winds for the coast and high wind gusts inland. A true blizzard will unfold in eastern New England tomorrow.



I have seen nothing in the last 12 hours that suggests a shift east in this storm. The issue is many models have such a sharp cutoff in precip as seen below...

I agree that there will be a sharp cutoff but given snow ratios it will not take much liquid to pile up a few inches from this. 

In addition the trends to me do not say east...

Animation above shows last 4 runs of the GFS ensemble. Watch the green and yellow shades out in the Atlantic. Notice how they move west not east. This represents a sharper trough and a storm that still can form more west compared to surface projections. My map above is based on things like this.


In terms of model support here is what we are seeing right now...

GFS has less snow than my forecast and yes this can happen but its not my call right now...



The NAM model is well overdone but it shows the other extreme...

The regional canadian model I think looks the best right now and splits the difference...

Here is the total storm animation from the regional Canadian. I am showing it because it best represents what I think happens. Notice how deep the pressure level gets!


Be sure to tune into my prime time update tonight at 8:30. We will have the final model trends to digest and I think we will know if my forecast will verify.