Saturday, February 13, 2016

Saturday Morning Storm Update: Model Spread Continues, Sticking With Preliminary Forecast

Good morning everyone. Although we are starting to get a little more clarity on the situation for Monday night into Tuesday a lot of uncertainty remains. I am sticking with my preliminary forecast below..

  • The dark blue zone should expect a significant snowstorm.
  •  The pink zone will feature a front end thump of snow Monday night, changing to ice,  then eventually some rain
    • I am concerned that the ice will be a big issue for this area Tuesday morning
  • The green zone will start as snow but quickly change to ice then rain
    • There will still be impacts early Tuesday morning. 

I will update this tomorrow. At this time we have two ends of the spectrum. The European model is still the warmest and farthest west with this storm..

The Canadian and GFS models remain further east. I will add that we have had some very good consistency in the Canadian model last few days. Below you can see what it is projecting. Notice the snow changing to ice and remaining ice just to the NW of I-95. This is a big concern of mine. 

The GFS is not far off from this. As I showed yesterday, the differences in the models more west vs east is how strong they are modeling the lead shortwave ahead of this storm. The GFS and Canadian are stronger with lead shortwave and weaker with the southern shortwave. The result is a colder storm. Here is an updated image showing this below..

European is left Canadian is right. Might be hard to see but on the Canadian the lead feature (top circle) is stronger. This holds cold air in a little longer and causes the storm to develop more to the south and east. 

So we have a lot t track here guys and I am sure more things will change. I do feel really good about what I have out right now however. Stay tuned for more details to come!

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