- An initial wave of rain enters the area tomorrow afternoon
- There is a chance that some snow can mix in in northern counties Tuesday night
- I do not expect any high impacts from this
- The main storm moves into the area Wednesday and lasts through Thursday morning
- expect heavy rain and wind all the way up into New England
- How depressing
- In the wake of this storm cold air moves back into the region for this weekend
- Although we are close to spring, there are very strong signals pointing to an active 1st half of march
- These signals include stratospheric warming, which will cause the polar vortex to weaken and funnel cold air into the east.
- Along with this, all models indicate a persistent ridge of high pressure out west which will also enhance colder than normal conditions
- We are not out of the woods till after March 16th in my opinion.
So lets take a look at the graphics behind my bullet points..
An initial wave moves through Tuesday night..
There will be some cold air ahead of this as a high pressure system departs the area but I do not expect any high impacts. Just do not be surprised if some flakes are flying.
The main storm then hits Wednesday into Thursday morning with all that rain..
As I discussed this week the ridge out west being to far west caused this storm to track inland..
I will admit I did not expect a full blown cutter but oh well.
In the wake of this storm cold air moves in for the weekend...
Expect high temps in the 30's. Moving into March, all signs point to a pattern like this..
This keeps things active. Notice the big trough of low pressure south of the Aleutian Islands, the massive ridge out west and the trough in the east. Also, we have high pressure over Greenland which is a negative NAO. This is not a spring pattern!
Yes, I know its easy to just say winters over and it was nothing more than a one hit wonder. However, we can not ignore these strong signals for March. This means can not be surprised if a big storm forms sometime in the first two weeks.
Like I mentioned in my summary, the stratospheric warming is a huge driver of this..
Notice the polar vortex trying to split near Greenland. This should prevent any full blown surge of spring.
We will keep track of all this over the next few weeks. Lets just get through this miserable rainstorm first. Sometimes mother nature just does what it wants regardless of what the weather patterns look like. Will that be the case for this home stretch of winter? Time will tell.
Thanks for reading.