Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Snow and Winter Returns

Good morning. I am still up in Stowe VT (coming home today) so posting has been limited. However, there is much to talk about this week. A chillier air mass has moved in and over the next 10 days we will see the chance at light accumulating snow then possibly a bigger storm post Super bowl.

Lets take a look..

We are currently under a much colder air mass thanks to a front that moved through over the weekend. This is the result of ridging of high pressure out west (haven't seen much of this yet this winter) seen below...

The image above shows the average pressure pattern over the next 6 to 10 days. Notice this ridge of high pressure wants to stay in place. This a big factor in supporting a wintery pattern for the east. Also notice some red or ridging over Greenland with a nice vortex of cold air in Canada. This will aid in supporting rounds of disturbances and light snow over the next 10 days. The stratospheric warming I  have been talking about is definitely influencing the pattern.

Starting off tomorrow, a wave a low pressure approaches from the northwest and brings light snow to the region from late morning through afternoon..

Models vary on accumulations, but I would say a 1-3 inches in in the cards for areas of central NJ northward. I will have more on this tomorrow.

Moving on, things then stay on the chilly side through super bowl weekend. We then really have to turn our attention to a potential winter storm as we head into Sunday and Monday. As always we will have energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere to track and see how it comes together. Below shows the two projected disturbances that can combine..

You can see one diving in from Canada (supported by that ridge out west) and another moving through the plains. We also do have some blocking with a vortex in eastern Canada and some riding over Greenland. This means there is a chance these two pieces of energy combine. The track however can range between inland to just off the coast. At this time models are spread (as usual). The GFS is the most aggressive..

Again this would be valid for Sunday into Monday. I will be tracking this all week so be sure to keep tuning in.

So where to we go from there. Well, there is support the wintery pattern does continue into weeks 3 and 4 but I really would like to see how these storms pan out first. If we end up getting more inland runners that cause rain, it just isn't mean to be. The bottom line though is that there is hope for Winter weather lovers looking at this pattern. Now we just have to see if it delivers.

More tomorrow as I will be back home from Vermont.

Pattern Update 8pm Tonight

Will winter return? Stay tuned.

Gone Skiing

In stowe for weekend. Might sneak in a post at one point.

Thursday Weather Update: Winter Will Return, For Now

Good morning everyone. We have some changes approaching weather wise as our mild spell fades away and we go more into a seasonal pattern as we enter this weekend through at least the 1st week of February. 

A cold front will move through tonight ushering in the new air mass..

This means that by this weekend into next week high temperatures will be back in the 30's for many areas. 

Up in the high peaks of New England the ski resorts should see some moderate mountain snows this weekend as disturbances aloft enhance mountain up sloping...

Through next week, we will be seeing more of a clipper pattern meaning weak low pressure systems move in from Canada giving areas light snow possibly down to the big cities at times. At least it will feel like winter again.

You can see below the nature of this pattern which is supported by more riding of high pressure to the west and a broad trough in the east..

Seasonal drivers are starting to change. The la nina is fading and the stratosphere is under a period of sudden warming as seen below...

This major factor alone means the chances of this colder pattern holding for most of February are increasing. The timing of this stratospheric warming is ideal. We will usually see a response in the lower atmosphere in the 2-3 week period, which in this case could support a colder than normal February as the polar vortex is knocked off axis. I am also interested to see if we get more consistent ridging of high pressure out west. That would be a major key to locking this pattern in. Right now models are back and forth on this.

Big storms are another story however as many factors would need to come together. There has been some chatter about bigger storm activity post Superbowl weekend but I am not ready to discuss that yet. Lets see how the next few days play out and take it from there. From my standpoint of a winter weather lover, it could be a lot worse based on the changes I see coming. Lets hope we all are in for a surprise, winter is certainty not old yet. 

More on this Friday. 

6pm Update: There She Blows

The storm is now winding up over the region and it is no slouch. 

Wind driven rain for most areas but higher elevations to the NW are seeing sleet mixed in. Winds especially near the coast will continue to gust high overnight. There have already been reports of gusts over 60mph. I expect power outages.  

As we approach midnight my concern is that areas over 1k feet to the north and west see enhanced sleet and ice as the heavier precipitation cools the air. This will turn back to plain rain by tomorrow expect for at the high elevations that are more north and west (PA,NY state). 

Below shows projected radar later tonight. Up in Sussex county NJ, parts of Morris County and PA should see more ice take over for a period of time as the heavier precipitation cools the column.

Up in ski country I like a nice 6-12 inch snowfall in the higher mountains...

This is not all snow on the map above but overall gives the right idea.


This storm lingers through tomorrow with more rains and should taper off by late afternoon..

In its wake cold air moves in for the weekend. We will have to evaluate the evolution of this colder pattern and if it sticks for the month of February.

Thanks all for now.

Mondy Morning: Powerful Storm Approaching Area, Multiple Impacts Expected

12pm note: ice will be a concern over 1k feet in NJ and surrounding areas. Blog update around 6 pm tnt on this.

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Good morning. I cut a video last night below breaking down the storm system that is entering our area today. This storm will pack a powerful punch with high winds near coastal areas (gusts above 50mph), rain, and some ice across the interior. Areas of the Poconos and extreme NW NJ can see some ice tonight but overall this is a rainstorm. To the north the mountains of VT,NY, NH, and ME see snow and sleet with mainly more snow in the north country. The storm winds down tomorrow from south to north across the whole area. Our pattern change then takes place this weekend as cold air moves in. Latest data still supports that this cold and possibly stormy pattern can last at least through the 1st week of February. I will keep my eye on any storm threats from now until then.

More tomorrow. Enjoy the video. 

Friday Discussion: Rain Storm Next Week, Cold to Follow

Good morning. As we are about half way through our mild spell things continue to look on track for at least colder than normal conditions to return by next weekend through at least the 1st week of February. This of course will bring the chance to see the white stuff again but I can not hone in on any opportunities at this time. We are going to have to leave this one up to mother nature. I am interested to see if this upcoming pattern change is brief or is able to lock in. If it comes and goes, then the winter can pretty much be written off. I am not ready to say that at this time.

Early next week we have a very dynamic storm system that will bring rain and winds Monday and Tuesday. There is the shot that if this storm deepens enough and takes the right track, the mountains of New England see a nice wet snowfall from this. If you do not live near a ski area I would not be counting on seeing any snow from this system. MAYBE on the back end if everything aligned perfectly. The fact of the matter is, there just is no cold air ahead of it.

This storm is the result of an upper level area of low pressure barreling under a big block or ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada seen below..

As we then approach next weekend the cold comes..

This will bring us into a clipper pattern for a few days where disturbances can dive down from Canada and give the shot at light snow..

If one of these disturbances was to dive in very sharp and redevelop off the coast then a bigger storm would form.  Again, we just have to wait and see how all this evolves.

As we then enter the very long range, we need to see if this colder and stormier pattern holds. Right now models are not fully convinced on this and revert back to the default winter pattern this year of storminess in the west and a mixed bag in the east..

This is the very long range so we will have to see if this locks back in or corrects to maintain the initial colder pattern we see. My gut feeling is that its a blend of the two. February could be snowier than January but that isn't saying much. At this point if we get to an average winter snowfall wise, its a win in my book. Lets see what happens. Like I said let mother nature surprise us.