Friday Night Video Discussion: First Winter Storm of Season on Tap

Friday Morning: Winter Storm to Impact Region Sunday Night into Monday Morning

*A moderate winter storm will effect the region Sunday night into Monday morning*

•  Snow will break out Sunday evening for most regions.
•  For areas in the Mid-Atlantic south (see map) the snow will change to sleet then freezing rain in the early morning hours.
•  Areas to further the south will see plain rain. 
• The storm should taper off by late Monday morning.                                                                         

Travel should be impacted for most areas Monday. Stay tuned for daily updates!

Below is my preliminary prediction. I will be updating this to a final forecast this weekend..

Latest models show an initial burst of snow Sunday night for all areas..

From my experience this front end snow can really "thump". Do not be surprised to see it pile up fairly quickly as Midnight approaches for areas in blue zones. 

Warm air then starts to work its way in aloft in the atmosphere...

This will cause snow to change to sleet in the pink zone and plain rain in the green zone Monday morning. However, notice at the surface the cold air mass is stubborn to leave (blue is below freezing)..

Freezing temperatures at the surface is a concern for ice to accumulate (sleet, freezing rain) from Central NJ north (pink zone on my map). We are going to have to monitor this very closely.

Bottom line: most areas should be impacted Monday morning. 

I will have a video out tonight by 7pm!

Next Update Tomorrow AM

Will discuss my preliminary prediction for the potential winter storm on Sunday night into Monday. Welcome to winter, arctic front is now moving in!

Thursday Morning: Arctic Air Closing in Fast, Snow Monday?

Good morning. As my 12-18th target period closes in rapidly we have a lot to track. The arctic front moves in later today and by later tonight and tomorrow we all will feel the big chill....

Temps crash into the 20's tonight and will only reach the 30's tomorrow with brisky winds and wind chills in the 20's. That cold air locks for the weekend into early next week. If you aren't convinced yet, this air mass will convince you winter is here!

On the heals of this air mass we need to closely watch an approaching storm system on Monday that will likely at least start winery in nature.

Heres what we know:

Dense cold air will be in place in front of it Sunday night...

A low pressure system will form in the Ohio valley and try to slide east Monday morning into this cold air...

The million dollar question is will it rain, snow, mix? Of course that all depends on the track and intensity of the low pressure system. At the very least, this will start as frozen precip for most areas Sunday night due to that arctic air mass in place. 

This is where things gets interesting...

You simply don't just shove arctic air away easily, especially an air mass like the one that is about to move through. That is leaving me concerned that ice will be a big issue for parts of the mid Atlantic as low level cold air is hard to move. 

For areas more north such as north central PA, NNJ, and southern New England accumulating snow needs to be taken seriously. My main focus is on the high pressure system ahead of this approaching storm seen below..

This high pressure system holds in the cold air. For its projected positioning I would expect snow for all of New England and the chance at all snow for the northern Mid-Atlantic. 

Although the models have been all over the place with how they develop this storm, they all somewhat agree on where this HP system will be. 

Because of this, I would be surprised if a solution like the Canadian model verified with snow changing to rain even in southern New England..

If this misses I think its more because the wave of low pressure gets suppressed due to the cold air.

A lot will change next few days be sure to check in daily for updates on this evolving situation!

And if it wasn't enough round two of  arctic air approaches end of next week with more potential mischief on tap!....

Stay tuned!

Tuesday Morning: 12-18th Target Period Approaching, Arctic Air on Tap, Will Rubber Hit Road?

Good morning. I am going to be brief today as I need to head to NYC to meet clients. I will lay out however a few thoughts that I will drill down on before the end of this week. 

I mentioned in previous posts that December will be a good litmus test for how the rest of this winter will unfold. I say this because when making my winter forecast many of the variables pointed to a cold December with snowfall. The good news is we have a lot of cold air that will be tapped over the next 2 weeks. In fact, it is going to be arctic in nature and by the end of this week everyone is going to fell the big chill.

So to keep things short, I am targeting the 12-18th time period for our first winter event in the Northern Mid Atlantic to New England. 

We have a lot of arctic air what will flow into region..

1st shot is later this week...temps will plunge into the 30s for highs by Friday with wind chills in the 20's. Lows at night will drop into the low 20's. True arctic air..

The pattern then reloads for later next week and we have a 2nd possible shot of arctic air for the following weekend..

So the cold isn't the issue here. A big reason we are seeing this big shots or arctic air is due to something called the Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). In its negative phase you get high pressure in the northwest Pacific which acts as a hammer to drill down cold air form the pole. You can see this below..

This keeps the cold coming next 2 weeks and very impressive cold to add. So now will it snow? My prediction is we do see the white stuff from north/central NJ up into New England sometime during this period. I am not saying a big storm (some other factors I like to see are not present) but more an episode or two of light to moderate snow before this period (12th-18th) ends. 

GFS still is trying to bring a wave through with some snow Monday..

I will continue to watch this closely. It will not take much to make this have a little more juice.

Following this you can see we have an active train of moisture/waves that will try to move through the area throughout my target period..

We will need to watch each one of these x's closely to see if any of them try to amplify which would cause a bigger storm to form.  In any event, I like how this lines up with my winter forecast snow areas...

There is a reason I have NJ cut off from average to above average and New England in well above this winter. NJ will have a lot of back and forth weather (rain/mix/snow). I think this upcoming period will start to show that. 

So lets see how this plays out. With the cold air coming any snow that falls might just be able to stick around a while for the Christmas season. 

If the month ends and none of these ideas play out then I will be the first to admit it. At this time I am confident they will. 

More on this before the end of the week.

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Cold, Active, and Challenging Peroid Ahead

Good morning everyone. Most of us woke up to a coating of snow this morning which reminds us all that winter is here. At the very least, very cold air is coming from the end of this week through the foreseeable future and there will be a lot of energy on the field to play with during that time period. Rounds of snow are likely up in New England during this time period and now the question is will the white stuff make it down to the big cities. Time will tell but I will share with you my updated thoughts.

Here is a Summary:

• Chilly air maintains itself through mid week before a shot of arctic air plunges temperatures by the end of this week
• Expect highs in the mid to high 40's this week with temps droping to the low to mid 30's for highs this weekend as an arctic front moves through
• On Tuesday afternoon a storm system approaches from our south west
• Snow will break out in interior areas including extreme NW NJ and northern PA into NY.
• Several inches possible in the interior with this system
• As the arctic cold front moves in later this week, we need to keep our eye on some snow to break out  Thursday and Friday
• Snow squalls are possible 
• Following the big chill later this week, we then need to keep our eyes on a storm system to develop early next week on the back of the arctic air mass
• Storm would likely be more wintry in nature

So lets take a look at models...

The storm system tomorrow afternoon...

I like this projection of where it shows the rain vs snow. We really need to keep a close on on NW NJ at the higher elevations as there could be a surprise in store there. Other areas to the south a cold rain will fall.

The arctic plunge then comes in end of this week. These are temperature departure from averages in C...

Very very impressive. This is cold air guys. Expect highs 15 degrees below normal with is low 30's to high 20's for spots in the interior. Wind chills will be in the low 20's for many areas this weekend. 

As this arctic front moves in, we need to watch for snow showers or squalls (intense short bursts of snow) Thursday and Friday..

We will watch this closely to see if any low pressure system want to spin up along this front. At this time I think its just snow showers.

Following this weekend, we then turn to early next week as a storm could form on the back of this arctic front..

Do not pay attention to rain/snow nature of this image or even the position of the low. This will be very shaky and shift after every model run. I show this because storm love to form on the back of arctic outbreaks, so this is something we need to watch closely for early next week. As I said over the weekend, the 12-18th time period is the target zone for first snows in the big cities.

If anything, there has been a trend for troughs to correct a little more east as a long range forecast period approaches. For example, here is the projected upper air pattern for Thursday with the arctic front approaching..

This was the old model projection from last week....

The trough is more east on the new image (top) and as a result we have arctic air on tap. 

Looking ahead to early next week, it will be interesting to see if this corrects at all to bring a storm system through with cold air ahead of it..

Just speculation for now. In any event regardless of the outcome, the cold air is here to stay for the most part, and naturally I believe snow will follow. If it doesn't then that will be a bad sign for the rest of the winter. The DNA of this season lies in the next 2-3 weeks!

Fun times ahead!

Saturday Morning Quick Video: Winter Might Just Be Coming...

As I discussed yesterday, arctic outbreak on tap end of next week then the question is will snow follow for the big city areas the following week? My 2 min video below shares a few additional thoughts. Also, light snow possible on Monday morning for areas in northern Mid-Atlantic.