Wednesday Update: Irma Barreling Through Islands, My Forecast on Track (For Now)

Good morning. Irma has continued to maintain its Category 5 intensity with winds of 185mph plus and is currently barreling through the Islands as seen below. This includes the US Virgin Islands.  This storm will maintain its intensity as it makes its way to the US Mainland.

I put my initial track/forecast out (in yellow) Monday night which had impacts from eastern FL into the Carolinas...

Models since then have shifted more towards my ideas as seen by the next image....

Don't be fooled, this forecast is far from over. I will say however that my view of this storm not hitting western FL or the Gulf is starting to pan out well. At this time my biggest concern is eastern FL and the Carolina's. I strongly believe that folks in the southeast need to starting taking this very seriously. 

The National Hurricane Center is starting to shift their cone more east...

Everyone needs to realize that we still are over 100 hrs away from this storm threatening the US. This means more changes in track can occur. The escape route of out to sea is still on the table but I do not assign it a high probability at this time. 

To give an example of model spread check out the GFS models potential storm locations for Saturday night...

You can see the fork in the road developing. Each circle represents a potential storm location. Now check out how this spread widens by early next week!...

This is my point, we have a lot of details to work out here. Everyone on the east coast needs to be on alert. 

As I have been discussing, the exact track of this storm depends on a few key factors steering the storm. These factors include an area of high pressure in the Atlantic and a remnant trough of low pressure moving towards the Southeast US.

The European model was the one major model showing a more west track yesterday from western FL into the eastern Gulf. On its latest run it has shifted east. So lets check out why...

First image below is yesterdays European model at 18000ft in the atmosphere. This shows upper air disturbances. Focus on the piece of energy marked by X diving into the SE....

Now check out the same image but from the GFS model....

Notice on the GFS image this disturbance is further south earlier. This helps steer the storm more due north earlier than European. In simple terms think of it like a seesaw.  Since the euro was originally later with this disturbance the storm was more guided west from the high pressure in the Atlantic before it was allowed to move north.

I based my whole forecast on my expectations on how this evolution would unfold. So far so good but I will be the first to admit this still can change big time. 

Looking at latest models you can see how they maintain a very strong cat 4 or even 5 hurricane as this gets close to the US.

Here is the latest GFS...

New European which has shifted east from yesterday...

Both now follow my ideas but I warn this still can shift. Again, everyone from FL to the Carolinas needs to be on major alert here. 

Thats all for now, more to come keep checking in!

Tuesday Update: Irma now a Category 5 Monster

Good morning. As you can see by the image above, Hurricane Irma has grown into a monster of a storm. It is now a category 5 hurricane with winds at 175mph! We are now going to have to really take a serious look on where this powerful storm tracks over the next 6 days. The National Hurricane Center has updated their cone...

Notice how the Leeward Islands, Bahamas, and potentially parts of Cuba are within this track. In the long range you can see the spread of solutions over Florida. 

Below is one models spread on potential tracks. I drew what my thoughts are as of now with a yellow arrow. I am favoring a track just north of Cuba into the Bahamas and major impacts on FL and the SE US coast. Again, this is just my thoughts as of now and it can change and is not based on expert opinion. Take it with a grain of salt...

The steering to this storm is fairly complex and does in involve the timing of a few features as the storm approaches the US mainland. At this time however, all of FL needs to be prepared for impacts from a major hurricane along with the eastern Gulf SE coast. One consistent thing on all models has been the strength of this storm as it approaches the US...

The GFS for example is extremely strong due to little land interaction with Cuba with a sub 900mb low...

I think the strength here is overdone, regardless whether it is sub 900 mb or low 900's still a extremely powerful storm..

The European model does interact the storm more with the Island of Cuba and Hispaniola which weakens it as seen by a higher pressure of 962 seen below. Both of these outputs would have Cat 3 to Cat 4 winds which means easily over 100 mph in hardest hit areas...

I am showing this because the difference between this storm tracking just a little more to the south has big implications on track and strength. If the GFS is correct, the storm stays over more water and is stronger before potential US landfall. If the European is correct, the storm is allowed to weaken over land a little before potentially hitting the US more directly in Fl or the eastern Gulf. It is extremely hard to predict at this time what exactly occurs but the chances of this storm not hitting US land are diminishing. Two more days of consistent model runs I think we can take the curve out to sea option off the table. For now I would say its still an outside option.

Remember the complexity of where this storm tracks depends on the steering components in the atmosphere as seen below...

As I discussed yesterday we have an Atlantic high pressure system that is steering this due west for now. As the storm gets closer to the US, a leftover piece of energy over the Southeast US (due to a ridge breaking over the top) should help the storm turn north to northeast. The key is when does this all occur based on the placement and timing of these key features. My track is based on the SE energy feature being a little more aggressive causing a quicker turn on the storm. 


Conclusion for now: everyone from the eastern Gulf to the east coast should be on alert for potential impacts this weekend into early next week with the key areas being the SE, Fl, and the eastern Gulf.


More to come on this daily. 

Monday: Picture Starting to Become Clearer for Irma

Happy Labor Day! Although we are still a week away now is that time that we can start to hone in on where this major hurricane will go. We have seen quite the spread of solutions over the last several days, some of which we now can take off the table.

Currently Irma is a very powerful hurricane with winds at 130 knots. You can see a well defined eye...

The National Hurricane Center has this for their updated cone...

The big concern here is that the Bahamas and Cuba can take a hard hit from this next weekend. From there come the spread in models widens. However, the GFS ensemble actually sums up the model spread well..

You can see solutions ranging from a hit to the islands then a sharp right turn up the coast to a storm that heads west more then heads up into FL or the eastern Gulf states. How this storm travels will all depend on the pressure placement in the atmosphere to steer the storm....

Looking at the upper atmosphere in the models, recent trends have been to allow this storm to move more west southwest due to a stronger nose to an Atlantic high pressure system seen below..

From there the spread in models really widens. The approaching trough to the north in blue is key here. Will that trough hang back enough to help guide the storm due north near the east coast, or will it move out faster and allow the blocking ridge behind it to steer the storm more west into Fl or the Gulf then north. Image below shows this...

At this time I favor this trough seen above with the blue X moves out quicker and this storm heads more west through Bahamas, eastern Cuba, then potentially up into eastern FL/SE coast.

I will have a video later tonight breaking all of this down.

Next Update on Irma Monday Morning

My thoughts have not changed yet. I am still waiting for more data to come in. At this time the Gulf of Mexico scenario from my previous post is diminishing. All eyes now on if this makes East Coast impact or goes out to sea. We are still talking a week away so dont be fooled by doomsday scenerios out there, its all hype until we enter the 7 day window. Will give my first projections Monday. Any thoughts in the meantime will be on my Twitter page you see on the right of this web page.

Stay tuned.

A First Look at Hurricane Irma: A Future Threat?

A powerful hurricane is rapidly developing way out in the Atlantic ocean.....

This hurricane will continue to intensity over the next week or so. The national hurricane center has put up its initial maps...

So where does it go from there? We have many solutions on the table right now but the one thing that is constant is that wherever this storm goes in the long range, it will stay a powerful storm.

Here is the latest long range model spread taken from the Canadian model ensemble. I show this because i do not have access to the European Ensemble right now and the Canadian is a good middle ground between the GFS and Euro...

Notice how wide this spread it which is normal due to the fact we are over 7 days away. The concerning thing with this hurricane is that many model solutions have the US mainland in the potential impact zones. 

So what are the main scenarios?

1. Irma continues its westward course and moves into the Gulf in the long range

2. Irma makes a turn NW after moving through Hispaniola and impacts the east coast

3. Irma curves out to see off the east coast

At this time is almost a guess what occurs but history would suggest this storm will follow the fate of scenario number 3.  The key comes down to the pressure placement pattern in the Atlantic which steers the storm...

First image is the European ensemble which has a wider more extensive area of high pressure out in the Atlantic. This helps steer the storm more west northwest if correct...

The GFS ensemble has the western edge of the high pressure system less extensive. This lets the storm move more north northeast...

The models have been flipping all over the place on how this actual high pressure center evolves over the Atlantic to steer this storm. In addition, they also are varying on how they handing a trough in the jet stream on the east coast...

The European ensemble has a smaller trough trapped to the south which isn't as influential in kicking this storm more east...

The GFS has a broader sharper trough which allows the storm to make the turn to the north northeast...

Impossible to say at this point what output will occur as this is over a week away and will vary on future model runs significantly. All we can do right now is watch the evolution of this and hope the the storm is able to cure out to sea.

More to come on this, stay tuned. 

Tuesday: Harvey Slowly Begins to Exit

The destruction continues. Early every river and stream in the Houston area has overflowed into the surrounding communities. Rain will continue in the Houston area today but the center of the rain does move to the northeast by tonight as Harvey begins to pick up speed. So far rain totals are exceeding 3 feet in many spots and we might end up seeing reports close to 4 feet in some spots when this is all said and done!! 

By this afternoon, Harvey is slowing moving....

By tomorrow morning things are looking better...

This clearly goes down in history as one of the worst flood if not the worst flood disaster we have ever seen. We will wait for the final observations to make that call. Again, it wasn't so much the storm being unique but rather a combination of factors causing this storm to slow down and stall throwing rain back into the area for days.

As Harvey is ongoing, we also now have bad weather in our area today as Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 moves off the cost...

Rain will make it as far north as NNJ today and gale force winds for coastal areas to the south especially the Carolina coast....

This then curves out to sea later tonight.

In the long range, we then need to watch a wave emerging off of Africa....

Models are aggressive on developing this into a potential hurricane but the track is much too uncertain at this time...

We will keep an eye on this.

Monday: Harvey Taking it's Toll, Rainfall and Floods Prevail

Good morning. As many of you know Hurricane Harvey (now tropical storm)is a historical event underway. We have already seen coastal destruction from the high winds at landfall Friday night and now massive floods around the Houston area due to the epic rains that are falling. There are some location that already reported up to 30 inches of rain! What will rains like this do? The image below sums up the horrible destruction...

The rain will continue through Thursday as this storm sits on the coast of TX and slowly drifts to the SW then finally to the NE as it starts to dissipate later this week.

Here is the current radar of the storm...

Notice the bands of moisture coming in off the ocean. Bands like these have caused the extremely high rainfall numbers we are seeing. These bands are due to a fetch of moisture the storm allows to come in off the Gulf. The image below shows how the storm circulation causes this moisture fetch as seen by the blue bands...

By tomorrow morning the storm has not moved much...

By Wednesday morning it has start to drift northeast...

Notice rain bands continue to come in off the ocean for both days!

Finally by Thursday it starts to wind down..

When it is all said and done up to another 2 feet of rain will fall in some areas...

All we can do now is wait and hope the rescue effort executes well down there. This is history in the making. 

So why is this happening? It has nothing to do with this storm being stronger than others from an historical perspective but rather the speed of this storm. The storm is sandwiched between two high pressure systems as I drew below....

The jet stream is also to the north so the storm is not getting caught up in its flow...

The result is a storm that lingers near a warm moist Gulf of Mexico. Again its not that anything on its own is out of the ordinary this is just a case of a a perfect alignment of individual factors to cause this destruction of rainfall. 

Lets hope the folks the best down in this region.


PS...

We have another tropical system  to watch that will skirt by the Carolina's this week. This will not be a hurricane but rather a combo of a tropical system/Nor'easter....

The tropical season then stays very active over the next few weeks. We have a lot to track.

More later.