WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE
Tuesday: Harvey Slowly Begins to Exit
The destruction continues. Early every river and stream in the Houston area has overflowed into the surrounding communities. Rain will continue in the Houston area today but the center of the rain does move to the northeast by tonight as Harvey begins to pick up speed. So far rain totals are exceeding 3 feet in many spots and we might end up seeing reports close to 4 feet in some spots when this is all said and done!!
By this afternoon, Harvey is slowing moving....
By tomorrow morning things are looking better...
This clearly goes down in history as one of the worst flood if not the worst flood disaster we have ever seen. We will wait for the final observations to make that call. Again, it wasn't so much the storm being unique but rather a combination of factors causing this storm to slow down and stall throwing rain back into the area for days.
As Harvey is ongoing, we also now have bad weather in our area today as Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 moves off the cost...
Rain will make it as far north as NNJ today and gale force winds for coastal areas to the south especially the Carolina coast....
This then curves out to sea later tonight.
In the long range, we then need to watch a wave emerging off of Africa....
Models are aggressive on developing this into a potential hurricane but the track is much too uncertain at this time...
We will keep an eye on this.
Hey Willy, I was just looking at the Eurasia snow map -- the flakes are starting to fly (and accumulate) over Siberia! I guess that winter isn't that far away. I see that the QBO winds over the equator had flipped during the summer, easterly. But a current wind chart indicates a weak 50-100mb equatorial zonal flow, over the upcoming week. Gonna need to keep an eye on that one, along with 30 other things.
ReplyDeleteBack in Atlantic hurricane alley -- that Irma thing is getting scary! Yesterday the Euro and GFS were at odds, but this morning (Friday) they seem to be converging -- the Euro seems to be backing off on the ridge that was going to aim Irma at southern Florida and then the Gulf (that's all they need down there!). Now the Euro ridge is a little faster like the GFS ridge, and both operational runs for Friday AM seem to keep the storm just off the eastern US shoreline. But all sorts of tracks are in play, as the ensembles show. Including a Sandy-like hit near the NY/NJ metro area, which one or two of the GEFS runs indicate (those tracks are more south than north of us, which would give NYC / Long Island / Jersey Shore the brunt of the cyclonic winds).
BUT OF COURSE, we're still more than 7 days out, and model skill levels are low (but rising each day). The important thing right now, I would guess, is that none of the models show this one just fading away. Interestingly, the operational Euro has just changed its mind (so to speak) for the 240 hour scenario, which it didn't really do back in 2012 with Sandy IIRC.
I hope that you and everyone of your readers will enjoy the Labor Day weekend (again, with thoughts going out to all of the Harvey victims and their families and friends, who will NOT be having a nice weekend). FWIW, I'm gonna be watching the runs on Irma (hey, it may rain here on Sunday!), and I suspect that you will be too! Jim G
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