Tropical Storm Harvey is Born: Initial Thoughts

Good morning, I have a special post on a new tropical cyclone, Harvey, that has been born in the Gulf. This system looks like it will be a real threat to the Gulf states, especially the TX coast with a potential developing hurricane and heavy rainfall on tap.

The national Hurricane Center just updated their track of this system..

Notice the spread in the cone for where this system can go.

The concern with this system is how warm the Gulf waters are and how slow this is going to move. Check out how warm the Gulf waters are. This provides fuel for the storm as the warm buoyant air rises and aids in the storm development...

In addition, the upper level winds are weak which means the storm does not move fast and can linger and strengthen...

 Notice the jet stream separated to the north. This means Harvey will not initially get caught up in the upper level flow of the atmosphere. 

Models show this storm strengthening and I believe it does become a Hurricane. Here is its current satellite picture...

This will continue to organize and develop a tighter circulation. You can see from the next projected model image what this may look like in a few days...

Along with potential Hurricane winds, major rains will be a real threat too...

Up to a foot of rain is not out of the question for some areas. This is due to the storm lingering as discussed above.

Will continue to update on this as days go on.