Monday, January 14, 2013
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Wednesday, January 9, 2013
Wednesday 9 PM: Winter Will Strike Back
I have been commenting especially in the video I cut over the weekend that after this warm up we are in the middle of, winter is going to make a bold return. My ideas have not changed at all and in fact I think the atmosphere will be favorable end of next week for storm development. There are a lot of factors that are going to contribute to this big turnaround, but in a simple sense take a look at this..
Looks like a complicated map, but all I want to point out is look at the orange warm air over the southeast and the frigid blue and green arctic air charging down from Canada. This is going to set up a battle ground end of next week (cold air colliding with warm produces big storms) where we can see a storm develop and travel from the gulf up the east coast. I am not calling at storm at this point, but the potential is there.
I think we can all agree that's a big change from what the air feels like today, and that change will continue into Feb.
Stay tuned for updates on the upcoming cold and storm development as well as an upcoming video.
Looks like a complicated map, but all I want to point out is look at the orange warm air over the southeast and the frigid blue and green arctic air charging down from Canada. This is going to set up a battle ground end of next week (cold air colliding with warm produces big storms) where we can see a storm develop and travel from the gulf up the east coast. I am not calling at storm at this point, but the potential is there.
I think we can all agree that's a big change from what the air feels like today, and that change will continue into Feb.
Stay tuned for updates on the upcoming cold and storm development as well as an upcoming video.
Monday, January 7, 2013
Monday 8PM: Watch Video For Pattern Overview; looking at the 18th for Possible Storm
I will post more on that this week. Things are starting to look interesting.
Sunday, January 6, 2013
Friday, January 4, 2013
Friday Noon: Updated Post Coming This Weekend on January Pattern
In a few words...enjoy the warm up next week, because it going to get cold late month!
Wednesday, January 2, 2013
Wednesday Night: Cold Shot Ends Next Week
Happy New Year. This week will remain very cold with highs not getting out of the 30's and lows entering the teens for north jersey. There is a slight chance of a storm forming for Sunday and Monday but I would not say that is likely at this point. Past this week, we will see a seasonal warm up for most of the nation before more brutal cold is likely to return by the middle to end of January. Before I get into detail on this, lets look at totals from the last snow event on Saturday:
This is the only map I could get, but it shows a general area of 3-4 inches of snow for most of north Jersey which higher amounts up in Sussex county. Not a bad moderate event by any means. I measured 4 inches in Morristown NJ. We are generally above average for snowfall this time of year which is not a bad start to winter. We have yet to have a big storm, but if you like snow we have at least seen it on several occasions.
Right now there are several signs that the pattern will reverse for next week and the week following leading to some mild weather for our region. This is not uncommon for January and is referred to as a January thaw. We can see this in the graphic below (from weatherbell.com)..
However, as this "thaw" is occurring as the upper levels of the atmosphere over the North Pole are warming. When the upper atmosphere in this region warms, it compresses the lower levels underneath and results in the cold air locked up in the pole to collapse and flow out of the polar region. This usually results in cold outbreaks for the USA. Generally there is a 2-3 week lag time before this happens hence why it will be warm over the next two weeks. Thus, expect our next shot at cold and snow to have the best chances of occurring towards the end of the month into February.
That does not mean a storm can not sneak up on us in the meantime, in fact as I mentioned there is a outside chance a storm might want to organize itself on the east coast on Sunday night. However, this will be much more likely once the atmosphere reloads in a few weeks.
I think we are on pace for a winter that will see frequent snow events and potentially 1 or 2 major events before season end. Keep checking in.
This is the only map I could get, but it shows a general area of 3-4 inches of snow for most of north Jersey which higher amounts up in Sussex county. Not a bad moderate event by any means. I measured 4 inches in Morristown NJ. We are generally above average for snowfall this time of year which is not a bad start to winter. We have yet to have a big storm, but if you like snow we have at least seen it on several occasions.
Right now there are several signs that the pattern will reverse for next week and the week following leading to some mild weather for our region. This is not uncommon for January and is referred to as a January thaw. We can see this in the graphic below (from weatherbell.com)..
However, as this "thaw" is occurring as the upper levels of the atmosphere over the North Pole are warming. When the upper atmosphere in this region warms, it compresses the lower levels underneath and results in the cold air locked up in the pole to collapse and flow out of the polar region. This usually results in cold outbreaks for the USA. Generally there is a 2-3 week lag time before this happens hence why it will be warm over the next two weeks. Thus, expect our next shot at cold and snow to have the best chances of occurring towards the end of the month into February.
That does not mean a storm can not sneak up on us in the meantime, in fact as I mentioned there is a outside chance a storm might want to organize itself on the east coast on Sunday night. However, this will be much more likely once the atmosphere reloads in a few weeks.
I think we are on pace for a winter that will see frequent snow events and potentially 1 or 2 major events before season end. Keep checking in.
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