Friday Update: Complex Winter Storm Approaching

Good morning. We have a complex winter storm that is approaching the region and will have impacts from Saturday morning until Sunday morning. This is initially a rainstorm for many, changing to some snow at the end. Below is my forecast map and summary of the event. I am going to update one more time tonight at 7pm if necessary, so stay tuned as this is a hard forecast. 

Summary:

• Storm approaches the region late tonight/early Saturday morning.
• Storm starts as all rain for areas outside dark blue zone
• the rain will be heavy at times
• For the dark blue zone this is all snow starting early Saturday morning
• The ski areas should see at least a foot with this system, especially over central and northern VT
• The rain will then change to snow in the light blue zone by early Saturday afternoon
• This is a tricky part of the forecast as it all comes down to the timing of the cold air vs the moisture in the storm
• Regardless, I think there is a good shot at a few inches Sat afternoon
• For the light green zone, rain changes to snow but accumulations  more limited. 
• Very cold air rushes in behind this storm causing flash freezing Saturday night

So as you can see, this is a complex storm. Anytime you have rain changing to snow at the end, there is a lot of room for errors and surprises. Due to this I will put out a final map tonight if necessary. 

In the meantime, lets take a look at the evolution of the storm. The model projection below is from 2am Saturday morning until 10pm Saturday night...

This is just one model projection and can change, but I think it still gives a good overall idea of the storm evolution. Notice late tonight, the snow move into the north and rain to the south. Then notice the snow crash towards the coast by Saturday afternoon. I think this model is overdoing this a little but the point is shown well here, there will be some snow to deal with in areas that initially see heavy rain.

The models have had a very hard time with this system in terms of the timing of the cold air arriving and the position of the surface low along the front. If this storm trends more amplified today, then less snow will fall in my light blue zone. If it trends flatter than a little more snow can fall. At this time I am taking the middle ground.

When this storm pulls out early Sunday morning, high wind gusts and very cold air will take hold. It will feel like a mid January day Sunday.

Things then warm up next week.

Stay tuned for 7pm evening update.