Winter Outlook 2021

*VIDEO IS NOW LIVE BELOW*

Welcome to the Winter of 2021 outlook! It is always fun to try to nail down what may happen for an upcoming winter season. I will say outside of generalizations, it can be nearly impossible to nail down specifics to what a winter may bring to each region IMO. Regardless, I tried to hone in on what will be in store for each region of the country. Considering most of my followers are on the east coast I will provide the most detail for this region.  If you enjoy the outlook, please feel free to share with family and friends. 

There will be two sections of this outlook:

Section One is the summary of what I expect for this upcoming winter. It will include my forecast maps for temperatures and snowfall along with a synopsis. 

Section Two will include a video that goes into some more in depth commentary on this winter and how I made the forecast for those that are interested. This will be released tomorrow morning (the 27th).

Section One: Summary of Winter 2020-2021

The Winter of 2021 should start relatively fast for the eastern 1/3 of the country. I expect winter to arrive on schedule in late November/ early December and feature temperatures that are normal to below normal from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. There should be a few impressive cold shots that move across the country from the northern Plains into New England. This pattern will back off a little at times but should last through January and deliver a majority of this seasons snowfall in the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. In terms of storm tracks, a big theme of this winter will be many events that include mixing as storms will try to cut to the west at time hitting interior New England with the heaviest snow. 

As we get into late January and February, I expect temperatures to moderate in the east with warmer than normal air taking over at times. This means a warmer storm track that hits many with mixed precipitation and rain. The exception should be Northern New England which should stay on the colder side of the storm tracks most of the time. 

All in all, I think we will look back on this winter and say it "was pretty typical" meaning most areas of the east see enough snow to say things where at least average despite some moderation and warm weather at times. I think at least one big storm is in the cards that will deliver impressive snows region wide. March will be a wildcard  (as it usually is) where if a winter pattern takes hold it can really tip the scales from an average to above average winter snowfall. We had this happen in 2018 which had a similar atmospheric setup.

Here are my forecast maps for Temperatures and Snowfall/Highlights:

As a reference to what is "normal", below is a map of normal seasonal snowfall for the region along with NJ.  Credit to www.lightinthestorm.com. You can click to make bigger...

Section Two:  Video Breakdown and Forecast Methodology