Good morning. A very robust storm system is currently approaching the area. This storm will feature heavy rain through today. The rain will be changing to snow up in interior New England and by tomorrow morning the flakes will be flying to areas as far south as NW NJ. However, I only expect accumulations in the mountain areas. Very cold air then takes hold through early next week.
Summary:
- A soaking rain today as tropical moisture moves into the area
- Rain starts to change to snow across the mountains of interior New England tonight
- By daybreak tomorrow enough cold air moves in to change rain to snow across areas as far south as NE PA and NW NJ at higher elevations
- Do not expect any accumulations but flakes should be flying in the air in areas above 800ft
- Winds picks up as pressure gradient increases
- Very cold air takes hold through early next week
Lets take a look.
Moisture rich storm system is currently approaching the area aided by tropical moisture...
The front end of this is a soaking rain today...
As the storm passes east cold air starts to rush in due to the northern jet stream getting involved tonight...
This is where by after dark I expect areas like the ski resorts of New England to start reporting snow. Even the Catskills should get in on the action..
You can see the impressive jet stream dynamics below, I highlighted the northern jet diving in and supplying the cold air...
Now here is where things get interesting. A piece of energy lags behind the initial storm system. This piece moves into the region by late tonight into tomorrow morning which gives the cold air time to establish itself aloft. This means some snow should fly further south even in areas like the poconos and NW NJ at 1000ft +...
You can see below how this model shows the snow in those areas mentioned around daybreak tomorrow. Now I really do not expect accumulating snow in NJ or most of CT RI. The exception will be those elevations at 1000ft+ that can end up seeing a coating from this in those areas.
For snowfall amounts I really like what the European ensemble is printing out...
Notice the mountains of NY, VT,MA,NH show decent accumulating snow where areas outside those areas its basically up to a dusting. I tired to illustrate this above. I honestly would not expect anything to accumulate on the ground anywhere near the coast.
On the other hand, I do expect the Catskills, Greens, and White Mtns can see a decent snowfall from this. It will likely be more than what you see above. 5+ inches in some of those areas would not surprise me.
In the wake of this storm temps will be very cold on Saturday. Lows in the 20's to 30s for many with highs in the 40s. Temps moderate slightly on Sunday just to get very cold again Monday and Tuesday. We can see more freezing at night with lows in the 20s and highs in the 30s and 40s for many. In NW NJ I think temps don't break 40 on Monday and Tuesday for some.
Things then warm up. Stay tuned will have more updates.
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