Tuesday Update: Big Flip in Models

Good morning. Although snow was never in the cards for the coastal cities it did appear a colder than normal pattern would take hold going into April. As the whole year has gone so far, any cold never ends up verifying and the same will hold this time. What we will end up with with seasonable conditions in the near term with warmer than normal (welcomed spring weather) for most of April.

 This current unsettled weather will stick around for the work week as a storm will be passing to our south and then lingering offshore. There is a chance some moisture is thrown back into our area by the end of this week. Regardless, some sun should still poke out Thursday and Friday. Temps stay on the cooler side through the weekend with a northwest flow.

Here is the storm offshore below valid Friday morning trapped and trying to throw back some moisture...

The storm is trapped offshore due to a blocking pattern that is temporally in place. By the weekend this pattern starts to relax and we transition into a warmer pattern.


Models made a big flip for next weeks pattern. From this...

to this...

Pretty drastic shift and this means warm weather for the east and potential severe weather for the Great Plains. 

Anytime you see a clash of air masses out west  (red and blue) that always could spell trouble this time of year as warm Gulf of Mexico air collides with cooler air moving in from the northwest.  If there is enough instability in the atmosphere present, then we can see severe storms develop in pattern like this.

So a few more days of unsettled weather for our region then things will turn the corner to more pleasant conditions.

Thats all for now.