Tuesday Update: Big Flip in Models

Good morning. Although snow was never in the cards for the coastal cities it did appear a colder than normal pattern would take hold going into April. As the whole year has gone so far, any cold never ends up verifying and the same will hold this time. What we will end up with with seasonable conditions in the near term with warmer than normal (welcomed spring weather) for most of April.

 This current unsettled weather will stick around for the work week as a storm will be passing to our south and then lingering offshore. There is a chance some moisture is thrown back into our area by the end of this week. Regardless, some sun should still poke out Thursday and Friday. Temps stay on the cooler side through the weekend with a northwest flow.

Here is the storm offshore below valid Friday morning trapped and trying to throw back some moisture...

The storm is trapped offshore due to a blocking pattern that is temporally in place. By the weekend this pattern starts to relax and we transition into a warmer pattern.


Models made a big flip for next weeks pattern. From this...

to this...

Pretty drastic shift and this means warm weather for the east and potential severe weather for the Great Plains. 

Anytime you see a clash of air masses out west  (red and blue) that always could spell trouble this time of year as warm Gulf of Mexico air collides with cooler air moving in from the northwest.  If there is enough instability in the atmosphere present, then we can see severe storms develop in pattern like this.

So a few more days of unsettled weather for our region then things will turn the corner to more pleasant conditions.

Thats all for now. 

Thursday Pattern Discussion: A little Too Late

We have a pattern projected to set up by 1st week of April that would be a snow lovers dream in the middle of the winter...

A beautiful look with high pressure over Greenland and energy getting clogged up (blue) underneath along the eastern seaboard. A -NAO pattern like this makes storm development more likely.

I do expect we see a storm develop around April 1st. Models showing this...

Given we are now in spring, it makes sense to see an interior snowfall event from this as shown particularly in the mtns.

I will be keeping an eye on this.

Unfortunately, it means a cooler 1st half to April overall. 

Sunday Update: Interior Snow on Track for Tomorrow

Good morning. We have an interior winter weather system to deal with tomorrow in the Northeast. My thoughts are fairly similar to yesterday but I wanted to provide some final detail to my forecast. 

Overall most people anywhere near a coast shouldn't see any snow from this. The areas that start to see snow start in the higher elevations of NW NJ into New England. Even in New England, snow will be more confined to higher elevations.

For NW NJ I expect a 1-3" of snow in the higher elevations. 

For interior New England (west of I-84) its 2-4" with 3-6" in the higher elevations

Elsewhere you do not see any snow from this.

Lets take a look. The forecast output below closest resembles what I think happens with this system tomorrow...

The timing is tomorrow early morning through the afternoon...

Light snow breaks out very early Monday morning for some areas in NNJ...

By mid morning its mostly rain with snow confined to the northwest. Notice NW NJ holding on to some snow. I think this is realistic...

By mid afternoon its snowing in interior New England...

Areas of interior Mass and CT west of the I-84 corridor a few inches is def in the cards. The ski mountains see around 6" from this.


We will see how this looks with the final model runs tonight. Stay tuned. 

Saturday Update: Snow Still on Track for Interior

Good morning. We are starting to get more data on our storm system for Monday. Overall this is an INTERIOR storm as I have been discussing. However, the interior can include NW NJ over 800ft and NE PA at the higher elevations It is going to be a close call in those areas and I am not ready to rule out some accumulating snow. Otherwise, I expect no snow for any other areas closer to the coast from this system. 

The NAM model sums this up well..

At this time I would say 1-3" is possible for the areas above 800ft on the grassy surfaces. For other areas the temperatures simply will just be too warm Monday for any snow to fall. 

Further into the interior and New England, this is a decent late season snowstorm...

At least 3-6 inches with higher amounts in the mountains.

The setup on Sunday ahead of this storm does involve a decent area of cold high pressure over the Northeast that will provide just enough cold air for the snow to fall in the interior even though it will start to slide east....

I will put out a map tomorrow morning to summarize my final thoughts. 

Friday Update: Similar Thoughts to Yesterday, Interior Snow Monday

Good morning. My thoughts have not really changed much since yesterday. After a very warm day today a big cold front comes in tomorrow. Temps crash to low 40's and upper 30s for highs this weekend. Lows will be in 20s.

We then turn our attention to the shot for interior snow Monday. When I say interior snow I mean NW NJ at high elevations, NE PA, into New England off the coasts. I discussed yesterday how this should evolve. Right now my confidence is moderate. I will have more detail by tomorrow morning on this.

Latest European model looks like this...

Notice any snow chances are NW NJ. Do not expect anything for other parts of the state. 

More to come. 

Thursday Weather Update: Can Snow Fly Monday Night?

Good morning. It has been a while since I posted as the world as been crazy over the last week and I have been setting up my home office for my day job. In any event, I hope everyone is staying safe and I wanted to take some time to review the weather over the next several days.

In summary, rain continues on and off through tomorrow. A big cold front then moves into the region Saturday morning bringing with it colder than normal air. This cold air then trys to stay in place as a weather disturbance approaches the region on Monday afternoon. There are some models that are hinting it can snow from this for many areas NW of I-95. I am not 100% bought in yet but it is worth discussing.


Starting off, unsettled cloudy weather continues through tomorrow until our cold front passes through Saturday morning...

Temperatures will feel much colder with highs in the upper 30's to low 40s for many areas Saturday and Sunday. Lows will be in the 20's at night.

Then the fun starts as a disturbance approaches form the west Monday...


European Model...

GFS Model...

Looking above notice how the area I circled on the European model is deeper than the circle on the GFS. This represents how strong the disturbance is. 

The European model has a stronger disturbance which means a more dynamic storm that can cause accumulating snow Monday...

The GFS is flatter and weaker and doesn't do much...

As crazy as it sounds I am more in the European camp right now on this. I am not saying the storm is as intense as shown but I think we actually got a shot for some snow Monday.

When we are late season like this, wavelengths in the jet stream shorten and sudden storms like this can pop up. Considering I am very confident cold air will be in place the only factor to watch is how strong the disturbance is.

I will be updating daily.

Stay tuned!

Tuesday Update: Little Chiller By The Weekend, Severe Weather Starts Out West

Good morning. Spring is underway in my book and we can start to feel the change outside. Temperatures have been very moderate last few days and this should be here to stay overall.

We will have a front pass through Thursday night and Friday morning with some showers which will cool things down a little by the weekend...

Temperatures will be in the high 40s to low 50s this weekend with mostly clear skys. The nights will feel chilly. 

The spring pattern then really resumes in the longer range with a ridge of high pressure over the east and through in the west...

The pattern out west into the plains has the signature to support severe weather by next week. We will have to keep an eye on this. I will post more as this evolves.

Thanks for checking in. 

Tuesday: Skiing In Utah, Slight Chance of Coastal Storm Saturday

Skiing in Utah for the week so posting will be limited.

There has been chatter about a potential coastal storm Friday night into Sat...

Seen above is offshore but we should watch this. Even though the winter has been a bust if this trends west next 48 hours we have something on the table here.

The overall pattern is OK not great...

We have a nice feature in eastern Canada I like to see but the ridge out west is a little flat. Right now I am in the offshore camp on this.

After this period, the spring weather should start to really take hold.

Stay tuned.