Saturday Hurricane Dorian Update

Good morning. Hurricane Dorian is currently a very powerful Cat 4 storm with winds at the center of over 140mph..

The models are starting to shift towards the curve off the Florida coast scenario....

Although this is not set in stone, it makes sense given where historical storms have tracked. If this holds true, Florida avoids a direct impact.

The best case scenario is that the whole storms center stays off the east coast but as you can see, now everyone from NC south needs to be on alert.

The National Hurricane Center agrees...

Why the shift off the Florida coast in latest model runs?

As you can see below, the trend in the models has been to weaken the Atlantic high pressure ridge (red) giving the storm a possible escape path...

This is going to be a very close call. If the storm center stays off mainland then this will be manageable. If it makes landfall or if its center rides the coast, then we have problems. I say right now its a 50/50.

The hurricane models show how close a call this is...

The issue of why this will continue to be a forecast headache is that the storm is forecast to temporally stall just off the Florida coast later this weekend. This creates more forecast lag time between now and potential impact along the east coast.

Stay tuned, there is a lot to track. 

Friday Update on Hurricane Dorian

Good morning. Hurricane Dorian continues to develop and strengthen...

Latest model guidance over last 24 hours has trended more towards a direct Florida hit or a scrape by...

The national hurricane center has adjusted their cone...

The storm is expected to strengthen into a Category 3 or 4 storm by the time it gets near Florida. This means winds at the center over 100mph.

The center will pack a punch but be relatively small in area...

However, many models are slowing the storm down as it approaches which means this can be a higher impact event especially with rainfall. If this lingers we can be looking at over a foot of rain in spots in eastern Fl.

There still are some outside model members that range from not hitting Florida at all or even heading into the gulf...

It will all come down to placement of upper level features in the atmosphere that steer this storm.

By tomorrow we should have a better handle on this. Regardless, the time to prepare for areas in Florida is now. We can all hope for the curve off the coast but the direct impact is still in the cards.

Thursday: Hurricane Dorian Now a Threat to US

Good morning. We are now entering the heart of hurricane season and right on schedule we have a hurricane developing to track.

His name is Dorian and it is located just north of Puerto Rico...

The storm is now entering a favorable environment to strengthen (warm water, low wind sheer) over the next several days. 

Based on the steering current of the atmospheric winds, the storm is expected to head towards Florida...

Many models have this strengthening to a Category 3 or higher as it approaches. 

As you can see by the National Hurricane Centers cone, there is uncertainty on the final track of the storms center (as usual).

Some models have it turning into southern Florida and into the Gulf, while others have it curving just off the Florida coast...

One of the factors that will be influencing the track will be the strength of the upper level ridge (high pressure, clockwise winds) in the Atlantic. The stronger this ridge is the greater chance the storm heads directly towards Florida. If it is weaker then the storm has a path to escape northeast...

Very small changes to this feature highlighted above can have big track implications. That is why you see the spread in the storm tracks.

As of now I would go with the European model this far out. It has the best track record for tropical systems imo...

Take this with a grain of salt. These hurricanes are harder to pinpoint then winter storms when it comes to exact track 4 days out.

What we do know is the storm will strengthen and has a decent probability of hitting the United States near Florida. 

Time to start preparing. I will have more as the days go by. 

Blog Activity Starts Picking Up Next Month

As the seasons start to change the focus will be on the Fall weather pattern and of course Winter Outlook 2020 coming in mid Oct.

Stay tuned.

Tuesday: Rainy Day on Tap

Good morning. We will be dealing with showers and storms all day today as an upper level disturbance moves through the area..

Some of these storms will feature very heavy rain as there will be plenty of moisture in the air....

Things then take a turn for the better the rest of the week as high pressure and drier air move in by Wednesday and Thursday with low dew points...

Expect temps in the low 80s then climbing to the mid to upper 80s by the weekend with some more humid air moving in as seen by the rise in dew points...

Some showers and storms are possible but nothing widespread at this time for the weekend.

Looking at the long range, things look to stay seasonable through next week. There is the chance at some above average temperatures moving in by the end of next week but no big heatwaves on the maps at this time.

Even though August is still the summer we start to notice the transition in the season beginning way to the north...

Notice the colder air now starting to show itself near the pole and northern Canada..

Will take a few months, but eventually that comes our way as the days shorten and sun weakens. 

Still have a lot of summer left to enjoy however.

Thanks for checking in.

Friday Weekend Outlook

Good Morning. We are now in August which means the last 1/3 of summer is upon us. By the end of this month we will all notice the days shortening a little and signs of fall approaching. For now however, its more of the same summer weather. This weekend overall will be quite seasonable. Expect temperatures in the mid to upper 80s with some humidity. 

A front will be draped to our south this weekend. A few impulses will move across this front causing the chance at some scattered showers on Saturday..

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Otherwise expect partly sunny skies and temps in the upper 80s.

Sunday will feature the same temperatures but no chance at any showers. Mostly sunny skies as high pressure is in control...

As we enter next week, things are going to cool down a little as an upper level blocking pattern (-NAO) takes hold...

This means cooler air funnels south cutting down on the humidity mostly keeping temps in the low to upper 80s.

This pattern will bring with it some unsettled weather next week.

The jury is still out on what the rest of Aug will look like. At this point I think it shapes up to be an average month temperature wise. One more heatwave or two can not be ruled out before the summer ends. At least we have some relief next week.