Thursday: Hurricane Dorian Now a Threat to US

Good morning. We are now entering the heart of hurricane season and right on schedule we have a hurricane developing to track.

His name is Dorian and it is located just north of Puerto Rico...

The storm is now entering a favorable environment to strengthen (warm water, low wind sheer) over the next several days. 

Based on the steering current of the atmospheric winds, the storm is expected to head towards Florida...

Many models have this strengthening to a Category 3 or higher as it approaches. 

As you can see by the National Hurricane Centers cone, there is uncertainty on the final track of the storms center (as usual).

Some models have it turning into southern Florida and into the Gulf, while others have it curving just off the Florida coast...

One of the factors that will be influencing the track will be the strength of the upper level ridge (high pressure, clockwise winds) in the Atlantic. The stronger this ridge is the greater chance the storm heads directly towards Florida. If it is weaker then the storm has a path to escape northeast...

Very small changes to this feature highlighted above can have big track implications. That is why you see the spread in the storm tracks.

As of now I would go with the European model this far out. It has the best track record for tropical systems imo...

Take this with a grain of salt. These hurricanes are harder to pinpoint then winter storms when it comes to exact track 4 days out.

What we do know is the storm will strengthen and has a decent probability of hitting the United States near Florida. 

Time to start preparing. I will have more as the days go by.