Friday Night: My Forecast For Tomorrow and My Initial Forecast for Monday Morning

Good evening. As I currently am at 30k feet on my way to Utah, I found this as a good opportunity to update everyone on what to expect for the two storms that will be impacting the region Saturday and Monday. 

In Summary:

• First storm tonight into early tomorrow will feature accumulating snows from NW NJ into Southern New England
• The highest amounts will be in southern New England where I expect a general 2-4 inches with higher amounts of 6-8" near Boston and south towards the Cape
• Storm is over by mid-morning for many

• The second and larger storm moves in Sunday night into Saturday morning
• Expect impacts mostly to the NW of I-95 
• For areas just to the NW I am thinking 2-4 maybe 3-6"
• For areas more NW I think a good 6-10" is possible
• The maps below go into more detail

For tonight into Saturday, I will just show the latest European Ensemble which I think is our best bet (click to make bigger).....

For the Sunday night to Monday Storm, here is my preliminary map...

Lets look at the play by play:

The 1st storm approaches late tonight....

We get a break on Sunday for the 1st half of the day, then storm number 2 comes in Sunday night...

I like this model projection because it shows where I think this rain snow line sets up. Maybe a tad more NW but not by much imo.

So why am I leaning more with the interior solution for storm #2?

1. We have no cold high locked in due to a lack of blocking. This means the track needs to be perfect

2. The GFS I think is jumping the northern feature seen too far ahead of the storm which causes the colder solution. The European and Canadian are more held back with this feature which means warm air can work up with the storm...

Thats all I got for now. Enjoy the snow tomorrow morning. I will have an update out from Utah tomorrow night for storm #2.