Tuesday: A Chillier Week, Warmer this Weekend

Good morning. Temperatures will be slightly below normal this week with highs mostly in the 40's t0 low 50s for many areas. At night temps will drop into the 20's. By the weekend things warm up into the 50's and possibly 60's. A cold front the moves through the area Sunday cooling things down again.



An area of high pressure over Alaska is aiding in keeping colder air in the pattern this week...

Although warm air does try to come north from the south, a ridge over AK helps keep a cold flow coming into the country from Canada. This pattern looks to continue through the 1st week of April.

From there it appears as things may finally really start to feel like spring by week two of April as this ridge backs off..

As far as snow chances go, the only place I can see more flakes fly through week 1 of April is Northern New England. I think the ski resorts stay prime until around that time where then the real spring skiing will kick in.

Thats all for now, thanks for checking in. 

Friday Update: Impressive Storm Underway, Ski Country Special

It may not be snow for many but this is an impressive storm system...

Energy from multiple jet streams is bundling over the north east causing this thing to crank...

Storm cranks throughout today and drops very decent snow in NY State, Mtns of VT, NH and ME...

When its all said and done by early tomorrow I expect 8-16 inches for mountain ski areas and lesser amounts in other places to our north...

If only we had more cold air in place, this would be some storm to the south as well!


Good ski day on tap Saturday for New England!

Tuesday Update: Storm(s) on Tap

Good morning. We have a potential active period of weather approaching in the next 10 days. The focus will be on rain not snow but there is always a stray chance this time of year flakes can fly.

The first focus will be on Thursday as a few disturbances come together to form a storm along the east coast...

Expect some rain and gusty winds. I would not be surprised to see some accumulating snow up in northern NH,VT and Maine.

Things will then cool down for Friday and Saturday with milder air returning Sunday.

As we enter next week we have to then watch another potential storm system..

Details still unclear, but under this scenario we need to watch for pacific energy moving across the country and potentially amplifying near the east coast early next week.

What is interesting about this set up is that there is some decent cold air to our north that this storm could potentially tap...

This means snow could fall in the perfect set up if the storm is able to tap this cold air. 

I am not counting on this and I really do think spring is here. Regardless, March is a crazy month an anything can happen. This is worth watching over the next few days.

Wednesday: I'm Back, One More Period of Winter to Watch

Good morning. I arrived home from Utah earlier this week and will now resume posting. By the way, it was an epic ski trip with loads of snow!

The big theme over the next several weeks will be the transition to spring. We will have one more period to watch for some winter weather next week, then I think the season will be a wrap.

Starting off things will get mild through Friday. Temperatures will range from the 50's to possibly 60's on Friday. The only issue is there will be showers Friday...

In the wake of this, temperatures cool down for the weekend into early next week..

Expect temperatures in the upper 30's to low 40s.

We then turn to what I believe is likely our last window of opportunity for winter weather...

By the middle of next week, models indicate a ridge of high pressure will be developing out west. This will allow cold air to stay focused in the east and provide the opportunity for a storm to form. This isn't a perfect pattern however as there is no blocking high pressure over Greenland. Regardless, we need to watch the middle to end of next week for potential storm development.


I will comment more on this as the days go on. It hasn't been the best winter season but there is still some opportunity to salvage it.

Evening Update: Snowstorm Underway! Greetings From Utah

My forecast is on track.  Although I may be out in Utah, I want to keep you guys in the loop considering its one of the only storms of the winter. Heavy snow moving in now. Stay safe.

Sunday: Final Forecast for Tonight's Winter Storm

Good morning. Even though I am out in Utah, I still want to keep everyone ahead of tonight's storm. Pretty funny how the second I leave we get multiple rounds of snow! 

Here is what to expect later:

• Snow develops to the south this afternoon and works it way to the north by the evening
• Peak of this storm is Sunday night from 7pm to early morning
• Storm ends Monday morning before 10am
• Highest accumulations will be to the NW of I-95
• Expect 4-8 inches
• For areas on I-95 and slightly south I think 2-4" is a better bet

Here is my final forecast...

Snow moves in tomorrow afternoon...

By 7-11pm it really starts picking up in intensity..

Storm is over by Monday morning...

Enjoy the snow. I will sneak one more update in tonight as this is underway.

Next Update Later Tonight

In Utah skiing. Will have storm update later tonight. Looks like last night's storm did qell for many.

Friday Night: My Forecast For Tomorrow and My Initial Forecast for Monday Morning

Good evening. As I currently am at 30k feet on my way to Utah, I found this as a good opportunity to update everyone on what to expect for the two storms that will be impacting the region Saturday and Monday. 

In Summary:

• First storm tonight into early tomorrow will feature accumulating snows from NW NJ into Southern New England
• The highest amounts will be in southern New England where I expect a general 2-4 inches with higher amounts of 6-8" near Boston and south towards the Cape
• Storm is over by mid-morning for many

• The second and larger storm moves in Sunday night into Saturday morning
• Expect impacts mostly to the NW of I-95 
• For areas just to the NW I am thinking 2-4 maybe 3-6"
• For areas more NW I think a good 6-10" is possible
• The maps below go into more detail

For tonight into Saturday, I will just show the latest European Ensemble which I think is our best bet (click to make bigger).....

For the Sunday night to Monday Storm, here is my preliminary map...

Lets look at the play by play:

The 1st storm approaches late tonight....

We get a break on Sunday for the 1st half of the day, then storm number 2 comes in Sunday night...

I like this model projection because it shows where I think this rain snow line sets up. Maybe a tad more NW but not by much imo.

So why am I leaning more with the interior solution for storm #2?

1. We have no cold high locked in due to a lack of blocking. This means the track needs to be perfect

2. The GFS I think is jumping the northern feature seen too far ahead of the storm which causes the colder solution. The European and Canadian are more held back with this feature which means warm air can work up with the storm...

Thats all I got for now. Enjoy the snow tomorrow morning. I will have an update out from Utah tomorrow night for storm #2.

Friday: Some Snow Updates, Storms to Track

Good morning. Snow moved into the area last night. In Morristown NJ we got 1.5". Some areas saw up to 3" locally. 

We will have some more snow tomorrow for some areas and then a larger storm moves in Monday morning. I still favor areas NW of I-95 for the larger storm but the jury is still out.


Here is the synopsis for both events:

Some more snow moves in tomorrow as a low pressure system spins up. The focus here is Southern New England where several inches can pile up. At this time I think a general 3-6" with locally more 6-10"near Boston area and the Cape.

This thing can really spin up a little tomorrow afternoon near the cape. Could end up being a nice storm for some up there.

Euro shows snowfall..

NNJ and PA can see 1-3 inches from this as well.


Then the larger storm moves in Sunday night to Monday Morning. My thoughts have not changed on this. I still think its a NW I-95 event. 

The euro agrees with me...

The GFS model is colder and more flat...

This solution is snow for all.


I don't buy the colder solution yet. For now lets say 3-6" just to the NW of I-95 with 4-8" more inland for Monday morning.


More to come!