Sunday Afternoon: Winter Storm Impacts Region Tuesday

Good afternoon. A winter storm will impact the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. Although the whole storm will not be snow, there will be impacts for many areas Tuesday morning due to the timing of the precipitation. Beforehand, a light snow event hits some areas tonight. 

Summary:

• Light snow tonight for southern areas
• 1-2" locally 3  for Central and South Jersey

• Main storm arrives Monday night
• Snow overspreads most areas and starts to accumulate after midnight for most

• By Tuesday morning
• Snow changes to rain for southern areas
• Snow changes to ice for CNJ
• Snow holds on for NNJ into New England

• By Tuesday late morning
• Snow changes to Ice for NNJ into southern New England

• By Tuesday Afternoon
• Rain to end for most areas ex New England

When its all said and done expect 1-2" for areas south, 2-4 inches to sleet and freezing rain for the bulk of forecast area, and 4-8" across the interior and New England. Tuesday morning will not be a good travel period. Expect cancellations and delays. 

Here is my map:

Highest impacts are in pink and darker blue zones. For light blue there will be impacts Tuesday morning but rain should take over by mid morning. 

So lets take a look at things.

Tonight light snow moves into the area. This is nothing major but will cause some travel headaches for southern areas tomorrow morning....

The 3 inch amounts seen above may be a little high but regardless expect impacts tomorrow morning in this area.

Then we move on to the main event...

Low pressure moves in from the west on Monday night. We will have a high pressure center to our north that will help reinforce cold air ahead of it, especially at the surface...

It is because of this cold high that we will have region wide impacts with this storm. The result is surface temps staying below freezing for most for the duration of Tuesday morning. This is despite the fact warm air will work in aloft. Models have trended stronger with this high compared to earlier this week. 

You can see the warm air move in aloft changing snow to ice Tuesday morning...

The surface cold air holds firm however for at least the 1st half of the morning...

This means sleet and freezing rain for many! I am confident this cold air holds on.

By the afternoon rain will move in but notice ice holds on for many in Southern New England and NNJ..

Across the far north a heavy snowstorm is underway.

Thats all for now. I will have an update in the am.