Florence Update: A Little Weaker But Not To Be Taken Lightly

Good morning. As the sun rises today, Florence is right on our doorstep...

The storm is more ragged in appearance compared to yesterday. This is due to upper level winds or shear coming into play and preventing some of the thunderstorms on the SW quadrant of the storm to blow up. The result, which is good news, has been some weakening of the storm compared to earlier forecasts. HOWEVER, this is not to be taken lightly. This storm should strengthen today before it makes landfall tonight around Cape Fear NC. As of now it is looking like it will hit as a Cat 2 (96-110mph) winds or maybe 3 (111-129mph)...

Here is a close up of wind speeds in knots from this evening to Friday morning as the center moves onshore...

You can see the initial 2 frames (12 hours) showing the hurricane force winds hitting the NC coast. After that 12 hour period, the winds will die down to tropical storm force (under 74mph) but storm surge and flooding then become an issue as the rain does its dirty work...

Here is the total precipitation...over a foot easy in some spots...

In summary:

• Storm makes landfall tonight as a Category 2 or 3 Hurricane with winds from 75mph to 111mph sustained
• Hurricane winds die down by Friday morning but tropical storm force winds will maintain for most of the day
• Storm surge and flooding will cause big time impacts along the shorelines as this storm lingers all weekend

Next update late tonight.