Tuesday Morning Storm Note: Higher Resolution Models Showing Potential

Good morning. Per my video last night, I mentioned how this will be a storm that needs to produce its own cold air for any areas south of New England to see snow. What I meant was the storm needs to deepening in the right spot off the coast and be strong enough to "pull" cold air down from aloft.

The shorter range models tend to handle this process better and we are starting to get in range of those models. The jury is still out on what happens with this system but there is the chance many areas see a changeover to Snow on Friday morning with this system. Where exactly that occurs remains to be seen. I still favor southern New England into the Northern Mid-Atlantic, preferably at the higher elevations.

As an example the NAM model is starting to pick up the storm. Here is the evolution...

Rain moves in Thursday afternoon/evening as low cuts to the west...

By late Thursday low starts to redevelop off the coast, snow seen in the Catskills developing...

By the early Friday morning, you can see hints cold air is getting pulled down to cause snow to possibly break out in other areas. Also notice the low is intensifying and stalled out...

By mid morning Friday, more cold air gets pulled in...

Notice this model is showing snow for many areas!

So we do not know if this is the exact way it evolves but the point remains the same. We have a very dynamic prolonged storm system that will impact the region Thursday and Friday. Depending on the track and intensity, I do expect a process like you see above evolve. I just am not sure yet the exact locations that see a changeover to snow. My best guess is Southern New England into the Northern Mid Atlantic.

On another note, a storm like this will really batter the beaches and the the prolonged nature of it and the winds from  east will have impacts...

This component can not be taken likely.

I will have more details out tonight at 7pm. I will also have my first prediction on this tomorrow morning.