WINTER OUTLOOK 2023 IS NOW LIVE
Saturday Storm Update: No Changes
Good morning. I have no changes to my forecast from yesterday. The snow moves in for many areas (rain south) late this afternoon and lasts till very early tomorrow morning. By dawn it is completely over.
The original map still stands...
I really like the idea of 3 to 5 inches for NNJ into Soutern New England. I do expect mixing to the south still and plain rain in the southern most areas. For folks in Balt, Phili areas I really do not expect much and have you in mixing on the boarder of 1-2 (pink) and best case scenario 2-3(light blue). NYC I say sees 2 to 3 inches.
Here is an updated animation of the storm from 4pm to 6am...
I think this shows my forecast idea the best with rain snow placement.
No live update this time as I am a little under the weather (no pun intended haha).
I will however have an update out this evening as the storm Is underway (between 6 to 8 pm)
Stay tuned!
I'm amazed by the model variance on this one, at this late stage. The NAM this morning has 8 inches on the ground over Morris and Essex, GFS around 2, ensembles 3 to 4, HRRR around 5, NWS saying 5 to 6, Euro-based forecasters at 3 to 5. Maybe these late season storms are harder to call, given the meta-pattern changes under way, e.g. the crazy Arctic situation with that big strat temp spike and multiple polar vortex. Gotta just keep an eye on it. Sun is still out as I write this . . . Jim G
ReplyDeleteWhat a crazy storm and a roller coaster on the models!
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