Good morning, the forecast is on track...
Heavy snow is now breaking out throughout the region as of 545 am. Few inches of snow reported in NNJ already...
The rain snow line is also crashing south...
Models indicate this heavy snow continues till at least 10am...
Southern New England sees snow continue through this afternoon.
Why will the snow pile up so quick? Dynamics or lift in the atmosphere is off the charts...
Stay tuned for hourly updates on twitter @weatherwilly
Essex County Executive Joe D. called me up last night and told me that Essex County is getting 8 inches, which is the low end of the Willy range (OK, so it was just a mass robo-call about staying safe and keeping your car out of the way). At the moment, 9am, I see plenty of snowflakes in the sky here in Newark, and some models are still right up there around 10 to 11 inches over the NJ Parkway northern corridor. The HRRR right now seems to be 7 to 8, but the NAM has gone a bit contrarian: the latest run is down to 5 to 6 inches total. And my secondary Euro source is down to 3 to 5 total (not sure about the accuracy of that source). The last GFS Parallel run was at 18z yesterday, was about 7 inches. The regular GFS was up around 11 at that time, is now down to about 8. Hope they put out another Parallel run today, that model's results sometimes seems more Euro-like. Interesting that the storm is well under way, and the models still are giving fairly diverse outcomes. We shall see! Jim G
ReplyDeleteHRRR now backing down to 5 to 6. Maybe 3 inches in Newark so far. Radar shows the storm already at the 40/70, looks like an express train. Jim G
ReplyDeleteNo-Snow line getting close to Mo'Town. Looks like the last band is over 287 right now. It's still winter wonderland here in Newark at the moment. Someone in W Orange told me he has 6+ by now, but hard to trust with the wind drifts. Maybe we're 5 at best here in Newark. Jim G
ReplyDeleteBUT . . . admittedly . . . the global models do show a variety of snow scenarios over the next 15 days (the models certainly aren't in synch about these yet). Taken together, they indicate a more active pattern for the rest of the winter. I didn't see any Nor'easters stalling off the coast of Long Island, but it ain't over until it's over. Jim G over and out
ReplyDeleteNNJ ended up being all over the place, I saw amounts up to 11 inches but Newark and some of those areas underperformed. I got 7 in morristown. Storm really hammered s new England however. Hard to draw a map w so many different totals maybe it could of be 6 to 8 locally 12 for NNJ then 8 to 14 for new england
DeleteI finally found a level outdoor table in a wind cove with a flat covering of snow, in Montclair, and I got 7 inches. Jim G
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