I put this image out on Tuesday morning from the GFS ensemble...
Here is the latest run valid around the same time..
The whole idea here is that a big storm in the middle of next week (focused on the plains states) will sweep in very cold air. In its wake a western ridge pumps up and energy dives down into the trough over the east potentially consolidating into a storm sometime the week of the 7th.
This is a model ensemble so the colors will look more stretched out and not as bold in these maps. However as we get closer to this period we will see if all that blue energy focuses along the east into a storm.
That is all for today, lets watch this all evolve.
I found a good web page from the NWS Climate Pred Center for daily stratosphere polar temp updates (if any of you Willie fans out there are interested, just Google "stratosphere global temperature time series"). That's something to keep an eye on too. We're up a little today, but still doesn't look like a Sudden Strat Warming event yet. And the 10-14 day telelink forecasts for the AO and NAO and EPO still seem mostly non-committal. So, as you say here Willy, just need to watch and wait. Maybe it will become a little clearer by the time the groundhog takes a peak.
ReplyDeleteThere are some interesting articles coming out about how the NAM model did with the "Jonas" storm. Jonas was a good lesson for me (and probably any other WX newbie) regarding "cut-off lows". Some articles are saying that NAM isn't as solid on overall synpotic patterns like the Euro, GFS and CMC are. BUT, it may have a better feel for the convection and advection dynamics involved in a storm cut-off. The synpotics didn't see the late cut-off from the trough near the coast until it was about to happen, whereas the NAM saw it at 84 hours out and didn't waiver. So instead of being born back over the plains and getting chilled out by the Appalachians, Jonas got born near the coast and was well fed with energy from the Atlantic coastal warmth anomaly -- so it quickly turned into its own little spinning top that could just sit there over the ocean. Willy, you said some weeks ago that this extra sea warmth might help feed a big storm. You're definitely on the scoreboard for that comment.
As to using the NAM in the future -- I dunno, I read that it still doesn't always get the big picture straight. BUT, in a situation like Jonas where the macro-scale picture is pretty well set, with the ECMWF, GFS and CMC all in general agreement, maybe the NAM gains an advantage for doing better with "meso-scale" weather dynamics. Which says that a "one-model-that-does-it-all" approach doesn't yet exist, and with a hyper-complex and recursive phenomenon like wx, maybe it never will. Which means that human interpreters and analysts will always have some role in the forecasting process.
That's pretty cool, I think. Looks like we're gonna be needing Willys and Joe Bastardi's (just wish he was a little less certain of himself sometimes, though) and Weather Undergrounds and Accuweathers and Steve Lyons and NWS's and yadda yadda for a long time. Jim G
I read some of those articles, very interesting stuff. I agree with the fact that the one model does it all approach does not exist yet. Im still holding on to a active Feb. Next week is huge. We need to see a storm develop from this set up.
DeleteI only wish I was as skilled as those guys but I have learned a lot from all of them. Bastardi seems to be throwing in the towel but I am at odds with that right now.
DeleteThere is a big area lacking snow from Ohio through NYS (including, Corning/Elmira/Binghamton, NY, Sayre PA, etc.), with as little as 4 inches of the normal 88 inches of snow so far for these areas. These areas have not seen many big snow events for years. The last 34 inch snowfall in the Central Southern Tier area of NY, which are listed above, was in 1993. That storm gave the entire East Coast heavy snow for the most part. The locations are within your big snow area winter forecast map. Snow coverage from storms have gone West, North, South and East of the area, as we witnessed in the last East Coast Blizzard. Are you anticipating the storm(s) for the rest of the winter to mainly affect the I95 corridor or affect West of the I95 corridor as well?
ReplyDeleteWe need a big Feb otherwise half of my snow map fails. So far my verification on temps is not looking horrible nor is the snowfall for NYC BaltWash and Phili but up further north its a disaster. We need two big storms for those areas over next 6 weeks. From what I am seeing that can happen but only time will tell. Next week is the first shot.
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