Monday Night Storm Update: Historical Might Be The Word
We really got a big one on the boards for this weekend. In my video I break down my latest thoughts and what to expect. I will release a first prediction on snowfall amounts sometime tomorrow. If your not patient and looking snowfall forecasts that will change every hour , you can always tune into your local on the 8's. There still is an outside chance this storm can miss south. However, if I see one more day of consistency in the models then the chances at that are very slim. That is why I want to wait a little longer before really honing in on this. Enjoy the video.
Gonna be interesting to watch the NAO, currently negative. Seems to be bottoming, forecasts have it heading back to the neutral zone. Were it to pick up quickly enough, that Nova Scotia high might not stand its ground, and this baby could get put on the express track. Today's model runs seem to have it on the local, making all stops. But even so, the two ensembles that I saw each had about 9 of 20 outcomes that mixed in sleet, freezing rain, or a fast track to the provenances. The rain-snow line is still in play at 96 - 120 hours out, could be influenced by an NAO working to bend or straighten the northern jet and polar vortex. Canadian model 12Z seemed to put the sleet line almost right on top of Morris and Essex, and mostly rain on Wednesday. GFS has the line between Trenton and Raritan Bay. See what tomorrows runs bring. No more white flags or towels, obviously. Jim G
now they amateur meteorologists have hyped up a major blizzard threat, won't be long till we hear it's either gonna be rain or the low is too far east...
Gonna be interesting to watch the NAO, currently negative. Seems to be bottoming, forecasts have it heading back to the neutral zone. Were it to pick up quickly enough, that Nova Scotia high might not stand its ground, and this baby could get put on the express track. Today's model runs seem to have it on the local, making all stops. But even so, the two ensembles that I saw each had about 9 of 20 outcomes that mixed in sleet, freezing rain, or a fast track to the provenances. The rain-snow line is still in play at 96 - 120 hours out, could be influenced by an NAO working to bend or straighten the northern jet and polar vortex. Canadian model 12Z seemed to put the sleet line almost right on top of Morris and Essex, and mostly rain on Wednesday. GFS has the line between Trenton and Raritan Bay. See what tomorrows runs bring. No more white flags or towels, obviously. Jim G
ReplyDeleteHey Jim,
DeleteNuts hows these models trend, first north then south..but I think this ends up in play for all major cities except Boston..maybe...
Hey Jim,
DeleteNuts hows these models trend, first north then south..but I think this ends up in play for all major cities except Boston..maybe...
Weather Willy - on behalf of all of your followers, thanks for your commitment and updates. You're awesome.
ReplyDeleteYour welcome Larry!
Deletenow they amateur meteorologists have hyped up a major blizzard threat, won't be long till we hear it's either gonna be rain or the low is too far east...
ReplyDeleteThanks a lot. I learn more here than googling or the weather channel with the way you explain. Appreciate your blog!
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Delete