A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL EFFECT OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL MAJOR MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROFESSIONAL WEATHER OUTLETS ARE NOW ON BOARD WITH MY IDEAS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS IT MOVES UP THE COAST. HEAVY SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH INLAND AND 55 MPH IN COASTAL AREAS. THIS STORM WILL BE THE STRONGEST OF THE SEASON AND MOST LIKELY EXCEED A FOOT IN MANY AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. EXPECT SNOW TO END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 12-18 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF 95 AND UP TO A FOOT IN AREAS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF 95. SLEET SHOULD MIX IN WITH THIS SYSTEM BY MID DAY THURSDAY IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTH JERSEY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW AT THE END OF THE EVENT.
I am not changing my snowfall map for this event based on the convergence of model guidance. The american model has now shifted to come more in line with all other operational models. We are in for a big storm. Let the media hype begin.
Latest European model 7pm Thursday night..
Next detailed video update will be up around 530pm tonight. Be sure to check in. Until then find me on twitter @weatherwilly
Hey Willy, I love your blog...I follow it religiously, very informative and no hype. What's with the NWS on this one? Still no watches in northern NJ? Seems like they're behind the eight ball on this one.
ReplyDeleteI agree with everyone when they say thank you for the blog. It's very informative and I also watch for your updates religiously. The video updates are great.
ReplyDeleteThey don't usually put up alerts/warnings until 24-48 hours out do they?
Thanks for the kind words guys, I appreciate it. To be honest with both of you I am shocked how overly conservative the NWS and especially some local news stations are with their forecasting. I am nothing more than an amateur forecaster you would think a "professional meteorologist" would be able to provide some insight beyond the model projections and take a stance on what will occur based on their professional experience. Especially when it comes to interpreting errors in the model guidance. That does just not exist in the public sector anymore. Maybe they are pressured by their networks to operate that way or they are afraid of being wrong. In any case there is no accountability and what you see are ten different forecasts leading up to a storm which causes confusion. The winter storm watches will most likely be posted tonight for NNJ, they generally will wait to put out a warning until 24hrs and a watch at 48hrs.
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